The scorecard
Civilization Scorecard
How knowledge-keeping classes captured their societies, scored across five thousand years
Fifty-four civilizations across five thousand years, each scored on four axes (stability, surplus, carriers, output), checked against the three conditions, and given a fate. When an adult dragon ends, the book records how, and there are six ways it has happened. The blank row is the best one: no fate, because an open dragon has not ended yet.
Supports the Prologue and Chapter 7, “The Account; The New World Meets the ‘Civilized World’.” The Prologue points here for the whole scorecard and its bottom rows; Chapter 7 points here for the ranking, case by case, that any historian of a particular period will be able to argue.
Every civilization and period, row by row
The book counts fifty-four. The working table of civilizations and periods behind it, Sumer at 2600 BCE to the present, carries 56 rows, and all of them are here. A cell is filled only where the project’s scored data holds a value: the four axes from the stability profiles, the three conditions from the capture matrix, a fate only where the book or its earlier printed scorecard names one. 30 rows are still waiting for a four-axis profile and say so; nothing has been estimated to fill them.
| Civilization or period | Four axes | Composite | Three conditions | Fate the book names | Capture dataset | Slavery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumer2600 BCE to 2100 BCE | 7648 | 6.1 | not scored | not named | 4 | |
| Old Kingdom Egypt2686 BCE to 2181 BCE | 9756 | 6.6 | 1 · 1 · 1 | not named | Egypt (rising 3100 to 1070 BCE)Fate in dataset: Cave colonized | 3 |
| Late Egypt / Amun1070 BCE to 332 BCE | 9763 | 5.6 | 1 · 1 · 1 | Ouroboros: the oldest case25c Field Guide, Ouroboros | Egypt (stagnation 1070 to 332 BCE)Fate in dataset: Cave colonized | 4 |
| Athens480 BCE to 322 BCE · earlier plate: Top ten no. 3 | 58410 | 6.2 | not scored | not named | 7 | |
| Rome Republic-Empire200 BCE to 200 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 7 | 9987 | 8.2 | 0 · 0 · 0 | not named | Roman Empire (rising 200 BCE to 200 CE)Fate in dataset: Dragon scattered | 6 |
| Rome Decline200 to 476 | 3454 | 3.9 | 0 · 0 · 0 | not named | Roman Empire (stagnation 284 to 476)Fate in dataset: Dragon scattered | 5 |
| Dark Ages W. Europe500 to 800 | 2232 | 2.2 | not scored | not named | 3 | |
| Byzantine Early527 to 1081 | pending | not scored | not named | 4 | ||
| Byzantine Late1081 to 1453 | pending | 1 · 1 · ½ | not named | Byzantium (stagnation 1000 to 1453)Fate in dataset: Dragon scattered | 4 | |
| Baghdad / Abbasid750 to 1258 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 2 (Islamic Golden Age) | 79710 | 8.1 | not scored | Dragon slain (Baghdad, 1258)25c Prologue; earlier plate, top ten no. 2 | Islamic Golden Age (rising 750 to 1100)Fate in dataset: Dragon slain | 5 |
| Post-Mongol Iraq1258 to 1500 | 1121 | 1.2 | not scored | not named | 3 | |
| Tang China618 to 907 | 9989 | 8.7 | not scored | not named | 5 | |
| Song China960 to 1279 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 1 | 69910 | 8.3 | 0 · 0 · 0 | not named | Song China (rising 960 to 1279) | 4 |
| Ming China pre-14871368 to 1487 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 10 (Ming) | 9897 | 8.2 | 1 · 1 · 1 | not named | China (Pre-1487) (rising, to 1487)Fate in dataset: Ouroboros | 5 |
| Ming China post-14871487 to 1644 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 10 (Ming) | 9893 | 6.5 | 1 · 1 · 1 | Ouroboros (the bite, 1487)25c Field Guide, Bite; earlier plate, top ten no. 10 | China (Pre-1487) (stagnation 1487 to 1905)Fate in dataset: Ouroboros | 4 |
| Ottoman 1453-17001453 to 1700 | 8876 | 7.2 | 1 · 1 · ½ | not named | Ottoman Ilmiye (rising 1300 to 1600)Fate in dataset: Tail spat out | 5 |
| Ottoman 1700-19221700 to 1922 · earlier plate: Bottom ten no. 9 | 7673 | 5.4 | 1 · 1 · ½ | Posture: clenched, 270 yearsearlier plate, bottom ten no. 9 (Late Ottoman Empire) | Ottoman Ilmiye (stagnation 1600 to 1839)Fate in dataset: Tail spat out | 4 |
| Renaissance Italy1350 to 1550 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 4 (Florence) | 59610 | 7.1 | not scored | No fate: openearlier plate, top ten no. 4 (Renaissance Florence) | 2 | |
| Spain 1492-17001492 to 1700 · earlier plate: Bottom ten no. 3 | 8965 | 6.7 | ½ · 1 · ½ | Fate not named; drove out its own scribesearlier plate, bottom ten no. 3 (Post-1492 Spain) | Spanish Empire (stagnation 1475 to 1700)Fate in dataset: Ouroboros | 6 |
| Mughal India1556 to 1707 | 7886 | 7.2 | 0 · ½ · 0 | not named | Mughal India (whole case) | 7 |
| Joseon Korea1392 to 1910 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 9 | 8564 | 5.5 | 1 · 1 · 1 | not named | Joseon Korea (whole case)Fate in dataset: Tail spat out | 3 |
| Tokugawa Japan1603 to 1868 · earlier plate: Top ten no. 5 | 9675 | 6.5 | 0 · 0 · 0 | Not a dragon caseearlier plate, top ten no. 5 | Tokugawa Japan (whole case) | 2 |
| Meiji Japan1868 to 1945 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Post-WWII Japan1945 to present | 8989 | 8.5 | not scored | not named | 0 | |
| Post-WWII Germany1945 to 1990 | 8989 | 8.5 | not scored | not named | 0 | |
| Comancheria1680 to 1875 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Maori NZ1800 to 1870 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Kerala / India1400 to 1800 | 6657 | 6.0 | not scored | not named | 3 | |
| Timbuktu / Mali1300 to 1591 | 7758 | 6.6 | not scored | not named | 5 | |
| Post-trade W. Africa1600 to 1900 | 2233 | 2.5 | not scored | not named | 10 | |
| Cambodia pre-19751953 to 1975 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Khmer Rouge1975 to 1979 · earlier plate: Bottom ten no. 1 | pending | not scored | Fate not named; clear-cut its own carriersearlier plate, bottom ten no. 1 | |||
| Cambodia post-19791979 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| North Korea1953 to present · earlier plate: Bottom ten no. 8 | pending | not scored | Ouroborosearlier plate, bottom ten no. 8 | |||
| South Korea1953 to present | 8979 | 8.2 | not scored | not named | 1 | |
| Singapore1965 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Soviet Union1917 to 1991 | pending | 1 · 1 · 1 | not named | Soviet Union (whole case)Fate in dataset: Dragon slain | ||
| Modern US 1900-19601900 to 1960 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Modern US 1960-present1960 to present | pending | not scored | not named | 1 | ||
| Modern W. Europe 1900-19601900 to 1960 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Modern W. Europe 1960-present1960 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Pahlavi Iran1925 to 1979 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Iran Islamic Republic early1979 to 1997 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Iran Reform era1997 to 2005 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Iran Current era2005 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Saudi Arabia pre-20171932 to 2017 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Saudi Arabia post-20172017 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Afghanistan pre-19961960 to 1996 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Afghanistan Taliban I1996 to 2001 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Afghanistan post-20012001 to 2021 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Afghanistan Taliban II2021 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Turkey Ataturk era1923 to 1960 | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Turkey Erdogan era2002 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Tunisia1956 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| Morocco2004 to present | pending | not scored | not named | |||
| UAE1971 to present | pending | not scored | not named |
Four axes: stability, surplus, carriers, output, each 0 to 10. Three conditions: the institution controls the credential, the class regulates itself, there is no exit; 0, half or 1 each. “Capture dataset” names the capture case a row draws its conditions from and the part of that case’s timeline it covers; its fate label is the dataset’s, which the book does not always state. Slavery: the stolen-river score, 0 to 10.
The top ten and the bottom rows
The earlier editions printed the top and bottom of the scorecard as two plates. A fate is given only where the text names one. The bottom rows show what happens when the fates run to completion: a cave does not need an invader to die. Most of the time, it empties itself.
Top ten, on the four axes
- Song Dynasty China fate not stated in the text
- Islamic Golden Age Dragon slain (Baghdad, 1258)
- Classical Athens fate not stated in the text
- Renaissance Florence No fate: open
- Tokugawa Japan Not a dragon case
- Han Dynasty fate not stated in the text
- Roman Empire fate not stated in the text
- Gupta India fate not stated in the text
- Joseon Korea fate not stated in the text
- Ming Dynasty Ouroboros (the bite, 1487)
Bottom ten: ten ways to kill a cave
- Khmer Rouge Cambodia Clear-cut its own carriers. Fate not named in the text.
- Qin Dynasty China Burned their books and buried their scholars. Fate not named in the text.
- Post-1492 Spain Drove out its own scribes after three centuries of convivencia. Fate not named in the text.
- Mongol Baghdad (1258) Slain in a single week. Dragon slain.
- Cultural Revolution China Turned the Red Guards on a thousand years of accumulated knowledge. Fate not named in the text.
- Nazi Germany Scattered its own physicists into the Manhattan Project. Dragon scattered.
- Leopold’s Congo Never kept a surplus long enough to form a cave; the rubber went to Antwerp. Fate not named in the text.
- North Korea Sealed its ouroboros terminal. Ouroboros.
- Late Ottoman Empire Sat clenched for 270 years while Europe compounded past it. Posture: clenched.
- Colonial Spanish Americas Colonized every cave they found. Cave colonized.
The capture cases in detail
The cases scored on the capture matrix: the rising period, the stagnation period, the three conditions and the fate in the dataset. Click a row for the evidence. Sort any column. Filter by fate.
| ▸China (Pre-1487) | 1400 BCE to 14872887 years | 5 | 1487 to 1905418 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | CONFIRMED | Ouroboros |
| ▸Egypt | 3100 BCE to 1070 BCE2030 years | 5 | 1070 BCE to 332 BCE738 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros -> Conquered |
| ▸Joseon Korea | 1392 to 1600208 years | 3 | 1600 to 1897297 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | STRONG | Ouroboros -> Spit Out |
| ▸Soviet Union | 1917 to 196043 years | 3 | 1960 to 199131 years | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | STRONG | Ouroboros -> Slain |
| ▸Byzantium | 330 to 1000670 years | 4 | 1000 to 1453453 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | STRONG | Scattered |
| ▸French Ancien Regime | 1100 to 1604504 years | 3 | 1604 to 1789185 years | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | CONFIRMED | Cave overflowed, 1789 |
| ▸Ottoman Ilmiye | 1300 to 1600300 years | 2 | 1600 to 1839239 years | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros -> Spit Out (partial) |
| ▸Spanish Empire | 1200 to 1475275 years | 2 | 1475 to 1700225 years | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros |
| ▸Modern US University | 1876 to 197094 years | 4 | 1970 to 202656 years | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Ouroboros (in progress) |
| ▸Mughal India | 1526 to 1700174 years | 2 | 1700 to 1857157 years | 1.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | SUGGESTIVE | Not scored |
| ▸Song China | 960 to 1279319 years | 4 | n/a | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Roman Empire | 200 BCE to 200400 years | 3 | 284 to 476192 years | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Scattered |
| ▸Tokugawa Japan | 1603 to 1868265 years | n/a | n/a | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Late Medieval Europe | 1150 to 1450300 years | n/a | n/a | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Islamic World (civilization-level) | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WEAK | Not scored |
| ▸Islamic Golden Age | 750 to 1100350 years | 4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | UNSCORED | Slain |
| ▸India (Sanskrit) | 1500 BCE to 5002000 years | 4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | UNSCORED | Not scored |
Counter-examples: where no capture formed
High rising scores with a stagnation score at or near zero. Each one had an exit: a rival city, a rival school, a rival patron.
| Case | Rising (1-5) | Stagnation (0-3) | Why no capture formed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renaissance Italy | 3 | 0.0 | No unified credential; competitive patronage; walk to Ferrara |
| Dutch Republic | 3 | 0.0 | Federal; market-disciplined; talent immigrating in |
| Song China | 4 | 1.0 | A wise elder’s machinery: the curriculum itself a living argument rather than a settled canon (Ch 9). |
| Classical Athens | 3 | 0.0 | Fragmented; competing schools; no credential monopoly |
| Phoenicia | 2 | 0.0 | Commercially distributed across competing city-states |
The six fates
1. Tail spat out
The dragon reforms itself and releases what it was hoarding: the only voluntary fate on the list (Britain, 1854).
2. Dragon slain
Something outside breaks the monopoly and kills the beast (Baghdad, 1258, in the better part of a week).
3. Dragon scattered
The cave is shattered and the hoard flows downstream to other caves, carried by survivors holding whatever they can hold (Constantinople’s scholars to Italy).
4. Ouroboros
The default: the dragon choking on its own body while the cave fills with treasure nobody uses (the Ming after the bite of 1487).
5. Cave overflowed
The river of carriers rises past what the banks can seat and the cave breaks from inside without anyone burning a thing (France, 1789).
6. Cave colonized
An alien dragon moves in and replaces the hoard with its own (Cajamarca; the Rus, 1240).
Dataset 2 of 2
Four-axis stability profiles
Twenty-nine civilizations measured on four dimensions of knowledge transmission
The more granular scoring: twenty-nine civilizations on stability, surplus, carrier density (population) and scribal output, each 0-10, with the composite, the stability-to-output ratio, the capture score and the slavery score (the stolen river).
| Modern US 1945-2000 | 1945 CE to 2000 CE | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 | Peak Compounding |
| Tang China | 618 CE to 907 CE | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.7 | 1.00 | 0 | 5 | Peak Compounding |
| Post-WWII Germany | 1945 CE to 1990 CE | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.5 | 0.89 | 0 | 0 | Recovery |
| Post-WWII Japan | 1945 CE to 1990 CE | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8.5 | 0.89 | 0 | 0 | Recovery |
| Song China | 960 CE to 1279 CE | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8.3 | 0.60 | 0 | 4 | Explosive |
| Rome Republic-Empire | 200 BCE to 200 CE | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8.2 | 1.29 | 1 | 6 | Compounding |
| Ming China pre-1487 | 1368 CE to 1487 CE | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8.2 | 1.29 | 1 | 5 | Compounding |
| South Korea 1961-2026 | 1961 CE to 2026 CE | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8.2 | 0.89 | 0 | 1 | Recovery |
| Baghdad / Abbasid | 750 CE to 1258 CE | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8.1 | 0.70 | 0 | 5 | Compounding |
| Modern US 2000-2026 | 2000 CE to 2026 CE | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 7.4 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 | Flood Warning |
| Ottoman 1453-1700 | 1453 CE to 1700 CE | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7.2 | 1.33 | 1 | 5 | Compounding |
| Mughal India | 1556 CE to 1707 CE | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7.2 | 1.17 | 1 | 7 | Compounding |
| Renaissance Italy | 1350 CE to 1550 CE | 5 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 7.1 | 0.50 | 0 | 2 | Explosive |
| Spain 1492-1700 | 1492 CE to 1700 CE | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6.7 | 1.60 | 2 | 6 | Declining |
| Old Kingdom Egypt | 2686 BCE to 2181 BCE | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | 1.50 | 1 | 3 | Compounding |
| Timbuktu | 1300 CE to 1591 CE | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | 0.88 | 0 | 5 | Compounding |
| Ming China post-1487 | 1487 CE to 1644 CE | 9 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6.5 | 3.00 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Tokugawa Japan | 1603 CE to 1868 CE | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6.5 | 1.80 | 2 | 2 | Mixed |
| Athens | 480 BCE to 322 BCE | 5 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6.2 | 0.50 | 0 | 7 | Explosive |
| Sumer | 2600 BCE to 2100 BCE | 7 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6.1 | 0.88 | 0 | 4 | Compounding |
| Kerala | 1400 CE to 1800 CE | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | 0.86 | 0 | 3 | Compounding |
| Late Egypt / Amun | 1070 BCE to 332 BCE | 9 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 5.6 | 3.00 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Joseon Korea | 1392 CE to 1910 CE | 8 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5.5 | 2.00 | 3 | 3 | Flood |
| Ottoman 1700-1922 | 1700 CE to 1922 CE | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5.4 | 2.33 | 3 | 4 | Flood |
| Rome Decline | 200 CE to 476 CE | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3.9 | 0.75 | 2 | 5 | Declining (Pandemic) |
| Tasmania | 10000 BCE to 1800 CE | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.8 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 | Collapsed |
| Post-trade W. Africa | 1600 CE to 1900 CE | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.67 | 0 | 10 | Collapsed (External Slavery) |
| Dark Ages W. Europe | 500 CE to 800 CE | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 3 | Collapsed (War) |
| Post-Mongol Iraq | 1258 CE to 1500 CE | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.00 | 0 | 3 | Total Collapse (War (total)) |