{
 "source": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv and dragon-scorecard-counter-examples.csv, The Scribe’s Advantage working dataset (2026-09-09)",
 "scales": {
  "risingScore": "1-5 (strength of the compounding period)",
  "stagnationScore": "0-3 (depth of the tail-eating period)",
  "dragonMatrix": "each condition 0, 0.5 (partial) or 1; dragonScore is the sum, 0-3"
 },
 "fates": [
  {
   "key": "tail-spit-out",
   "order": 1,
   "label": "Tail spat out",
   "description": "The dragon reforms itself and releases what it was hoarding: the only voluntary fate on the list (Britain, 1854)."
  },
  {
   "key": "dragon-slain",
   "order": 2,
   "label": "Dragon slain",
   "description": "Something outside breaks the monopoly and kills the beast (Baghdad, 1258, in the better part of a week)."
  },
  {
   "key": "dragon-disrupted",
   "order": 3,
   "label": "Dragon scattered",
   "description": "The cave is shattered and the hoard flows downstream to other caves, carried by survivors holding whatever they can hold (Constantinople’s scholars to Italy)."
  },
  {
   "key": "dragon-eats-on",
   "order": 4,
   "label": "Ouroboros",
   "description": "The default: the dragon choking on its own body while the cave fills with treasure nobody uses (the Ming after the bite of 1487)."
  },
  {
   "key": "cave-flooded",
   "order": 5,
   "label": "Cave overflowed",
   "description": "The river of carriers rises past what the banks can seat and the cave breaks from inside without anyone burning a thing (France, 1789)."
  },
  {
   "key": "cave-colonized",
   "order": 6,
   "label": "Cave colonized",
   "description": "An alien dragon moves in and replaces the hoard with its own (Cajamarca; the Rus, 1240)."
  },
  {
   "key": "unscored",
   "order": 7,
   "label": "No fate: open",
   "description": "An open dragon has no fate because it has not ended yet; babies and young dragons get no line. Also used where the book does not score the case."
  }
 ],
 "civilizations": [
  {
   "name": "China (Pre-1487)",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": -1400,
    "end": 1487,
    "duration": 2887
   },
   "risingScore": 5,
   "risingMeasure": "3200+ years continuous; 46908 jinshi in Ming+Qing alone; 100000+ across full system",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1487,
    "end": 1905,
    "duration": 418
   },
   "stagnationScore": 3,
   "evidenceStrength": "CONFIRMED",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 1
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "Eight-Legged Essay after 1487",
    "noExit": "haijin closed coast"
   },
   "dragonScore": 3,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-eats-on",
   "fateDetail": "418 years of tail-eating until exam abolished 1905"
  },
  {
   "name": "Egypt",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": -3100,
    "end": -1070,
    "duration": 2030
   },
   "risingScore": 5,
   "risingMeasure": "~2000 years of compounding before priestly capture",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": -1070,
    "end": -332,
    "duration": 738
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "SUGGESTIVE",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 1
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "Amun priesthood",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "curriculum unchanged for millennia",
    "noExit": "no competing institution"
   },
   "dragonScore": 3,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros -> Conquered",
   "fateCategory": "cave-colonized",
   "fateDetail": "Amun priesthood captured system; Ptolemaic conquest ended it"
  },
  {
   "name": "Islamic Golden Age",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 750,
    "end": 1100,
    "duration": 350
   },
   "risingScore": 4,
   "risingMeasure": "Translation movement; House of Wisdom; algebra; optics",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": null,
   "evidenceStrength": "UNSCORED",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": null,
    "selfRegulatingClass": null,
    "noExit": null
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": null,
   "dragonFate": "Slain",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-slain",
   "fateDetail": "Mongol destruction of Baghdad, 1258, in the better part of a week."
  },
  {
   "name": "Byzantium",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 330,
    "end": 1000,
    "duration": 670
   },
   "risingScore": 4,
   "risingMeasure": "Preserved Greek corpus through European dark age",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1000,
    "end": 1453,
    "duration": 453
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "STRONG",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 0.5
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "state church hierarchy",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "preservation over contestation",
    "noExit": "military crisis limited exit"
   },
   "dragonScore": 2.5,
   "dragonFate": "Scattered",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-disrupted",
   "fateDetail": "Fall of Constantinople sent scholars to Italy; seeded Renaissance"
  },
  {
   "name": "India (Sanskrit)",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": -1500,
    "end": 500,
    "duration": 2000
   },
   "risingScore": 4,
   "risingMeasure": "Grammar; zero; astronomy; medical texts across 2000 years",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": null,
   "evidenceStrength": "UNSCORED",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": null,
    "selfRegulatingClass": null,
    "noExit": null
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": null,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": ""
  },
  {
   "name": "Song China",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 960,
    "end": 1279,
    "duration": 319
   },
   "risingScore": 4,
   "risingMeasure": "Moveable type; gunpowder; 100000+ degrees (vs Tang 6585)",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": 1,
   "evidenceStrength": "WEAK",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "curriculum in flux",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "Wang Anshi reforms",
    "noExit": "scholar mobility"
   },
   "dragonScore": 0,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": "Ran a wise elder’s machinery: a live exam that argued about its own criteria (Ch 9). Then the Mongols came. The book gives the Song no scorecard line."
  },
  {
   "name": "Roman Empire",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": -200,
    "end": 200,
    "duration": 400
   },
   "risingScore": 3,
   "risingMeasure": "Law; engineering; census; literacy 10-15%",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 284,
    "end": 476,
    "duration": 192
   },
   "stagnationScore": 1.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "WEAK",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": "Church was the exit"
   },
   "dragonScore": 0,
   "dragonFate": "Scattered",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-disrupted",
   "fateDetail": "Scholars to monasteries; to Byzantium; to Islamic courts"
  },
  {
   "name": "Joseon Korea",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1392,
    "end": 1600,
    "duration": 208
   },
   "risingScore": 3,
   "risingMeasure": "Hangul invention + exam system adoption",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1600,
    "end": 1897,
    "duration": 297
   },
   "stagnationScore": 3,
   "evidenceStrength": "STRONG",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 1
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": 3,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros -> Spit Out",
   "fateCategory": "tail-spit-out",
   "fateDetail": "Japanese colonial disruption; then Park Chung-hee forced modernization"
  },
  {
   "name": "French Ancien Regime",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1100,
    "end": 1604,
    "duration": 504
   },
   "risingScore": 3,
   "risingMeasure": "Cathedrals; universities; legal codification",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1604,
    "end": 1789,
    "duration": 185
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "CONFIRMED",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 0.5
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": "Enlightenment ran alongside"
   },
   "dragonScore": 2.5,
   "dragonFate": "Cave overflowed, 1789",
   "fateCategory": "cave-flooded",
   "fateDetail": "Too many educated men for too few positions: the Third Estate swelling with lawyers, notaries and physicians. The breach is the crack, the flood is the water, and cave overflowed is the line on the scorecard (Ch 24)."
  },
  {
   "name": "Soviet Union",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1917,
    "end": 1960,
    "duration": 43
   },
   "risingScore": 3,
   "risingMeasure": "Universal literacy; space program; industrial science",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1960,
    "end": 1991,
    "duration": 31
   },
   "stagnationScore": 3,
   "evidenceStrength": "STRONG",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 1
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "state academy",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "state directed",
    "noExit": "no exit"
   },
   "dragonScore": 3,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros -> Slain",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-slain",
   "fateDetail": "Internal stagnation followed by systemic collapse"
  },
  {
   "name": "Spanish Empire",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1200,
    "end": 1475,
    "duration": 275
   },
   "risingScore": 2,
   "risingMeasure": "Reconquista scholarship; Salamanca; colonial admin",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1475,
    "end": 1700,
    "duration": 225
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "SUGGESTIVE",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0.5,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 0.5
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": 2,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-eats-on",
   "fateDetail": "Slow decline; no single slaying event"
  },
  {
   "name": "Ottoman Ilmiye",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1300,
    "end": 1600,
    "duration": 300
   },
   "risingScore": 2,
   "risingMeasure": "Mosque-university complex; legal tradition",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1600,
    "end": 1839,
    "duration": 239
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2,
   "evidenceStrength": "SUGGESTIVE",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 1,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 0.5
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "ten ranked madrasa tiers",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "hereditary great mevali families",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": 2.5,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros -> Spit Out (partial)",
   "fateCategory": "tail-spit-out",
   "fateDetail": "Tanzimat reforms attempted from within; incomplete"
  },
  {
   "name": "Mughal India",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1526,
    "end": 1700,
    "duration": 174
   },
   "risingScore": 2,
   "risingMeasure": "Court patronage; architectural engineering; revenue admin",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1700,
    "end": 1857,
    "duration": 157
   },
   "stagnationScore": 1.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "SUGGESTIVE",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0.5,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": "successor courts = exit"
   },
   "dragonScore": 0.5,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": "Successor courts provided exit"
  },
  {
   "name": "Modern US University",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1876,
    "end": 1970,
    "duration": 94
   },
   "risingScore": 4,
   "risingMeasure": "Research university to moon landing in under a century",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": 1970,
    "end": 2026,
    "duration": 56
   },
   "stagnationScore": 2,
   "evidenceStrength": "SUGGESTIVE",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0.5,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 1,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "UPL for law; tenure for academia",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "credential inflation",
    "noExit": "tech industry = exit"
   },
   "dragonScore": 1.5,
   "dragonFate": "Ouroboros (in progress)",
   "fateCategory": "dragon-eats-on",
   "fateDetail": "Credential inflation measurable; AI may be the disruption"
  },
  {
   "name": "Tokugawa Japan",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1603,
    "end": 1868,
    "duration": 265
   },
   "risingScore": null,
   "risingMeasure": "",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": 1,
   "evidenceStrength": "WEAK",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": "competing domain schools"
   },
   "dragonScore": 0,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": "Sakoku isolation; not scribes; no credential monopoly"
  },
  {
   "name": "Late Medieval Europe",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": 1150,
    "end": 1450,
    "duration": 300
   },
   "risingScore": null,
   "risingMeasure": "",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": 1,
   "evidenceStrength": "WEAK",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": ""
   },
   "dragonScore": 0,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": "Own data contradicts; no monopoly"
  },
  {
   "name": "Islamic World (civilization-level)",
   "risingPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "risingScore": null,
   "risingMeasure": "",
   "stagnationPeriod": {
    "start": null,
    "end": null,
    "duration": null
   },
   "stagnationScore": 0.5,
   "evidenceStrength": "WEAK",
   "dragonMatrix": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": 0,
    "selfRegulatingClass": 0,
    "noExit": 0
   },
   "dragonMatrixNotes": {
    "credentialingMonopoly": "",
    "selfRegulatingClass": "",
    "noExit": "ijaza personal; four legal schools; scholars mobile"
   },
   "dragonScore": 0,
   "dragonFate": "",
   "fateCategory": "unscored",
   "fateDetail": "No monopoly; decline thesis contested"
  }
 ],
 "counterExamples": [
  {
   "name": "Renaissance Italy",
   "risingScore": 3,
   "stagnationScore": 0,
   "whyNoDragon": "No unified credential; competitive patronage; walk to Ferrara"
  },
  {
   "name": "Dutch Republic",
   "risingScore": 3,
   "stagnationScore": 0,
   "whyNoDragon": "Federal; market-disciplined; talent immigrating in"
  },
  {
   "name": "Song China",
   "risingScore": 4,
   "stagnationScore": 1,
   "whyNoDragon": "A wise elder’s machinery: the curriculum itself a living argument rather than a settled canon (Ch 9)."
  },
  {
   "name": "Classical Athens",
   "risingScore": 3,
   "stagnationScore": 0,
   "whyNoDragon": "Fragmented; competing schools; no credential monopoly"
  },
  {
   "name": "Phoenicia",
   "risingScore": 2,
   "stagnationScore": 0,
   "whyNoDragon": "Commercially distributed across competing city-states"
  }
 ]
}