{ "source": "Roster: womens-compounding-score.csv (civilizations and periods, Sumer 2600 BCE to the present). Four axes: stability-scores.csv. Conditions: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv. Rows neither dataset covers: scorecard-research-2026-09-26.json, scored against scorecard-rubric-2026-09-26.md, one justification and source per cell. Fates named: the book (25c) and the earlier editions' printed scorecard plates. Built by scripts/build-scorecard-54.py.", "rows": [ { "name": "Sumer", "start": -2600, "end": -2100, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 4, "output": 8, "composite": 6.1, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Sumer", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The scribal profession (dub-sar) of temple and palace administration, Early Dynastic III to early Ur III (2600-2100 BCE), not the later Old Babylonian edubba (book L748)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Office-writing required long training in a standard curriculum of lexical lists, attested in school texts from Fara and Abu Salabikh c. 2600 BCE; but no formal credential or single gate is attested before the Old Babylonian edubba, which the book itself dates a thousand years after the first tablet (L748).", "sources": [ "Veldhuis, Niek (2014). History of the Cuneiform Lexical Tradition. Guides to the Mesopotamian Textual Record 6. Munster: Ugarit-Verlag.", "Visicato, Giuseppe (2000). The Power and the Writing: The Early Scribes of Mesopotamia. Bethesda, MD: CDL Press. https://www.eisenbrauns.org/books/titles/978-1-883053-47-5.html", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 748" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Scribes trained scribes and transmitted the lexical curriculum with strong conservatism for centuries (Veldhuis), and Visicato shows scribes as major figures in managing economic and political power; but they served ensis, temple managers and kings, and Sargonic administration reformed script and accounting formats under royal direction.", "sources": [ "Veldhuis, Niek (2014). History of the Cuneiform Lexical Tradition. Guides to the Mesopotamian Textual Record 6. Munster: Ugarit-Verlag.", "Visicato, Giuseppe (2000). The Power and the Writing: The Early Scribes of Mesopotamia. Bethesda, MD: CDL Press. https://www.eisenbrauns.org/books/titles/978-1-883053-47-5.html", "Foster, Benjamin R. (2016). The Age of Agade: Inventing Empire in Ancient Mesopotamia. London and New York: Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/The-Age-of-Agade-Inventing-Empire-in-Ancient-Mesopotamia/Foster/p/book/9781138909755" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "In Early Dynastic III rival city-states (Lagash, Umma, Ur, Uruk, Kish) and even Ebla in Syria used the same lexical curriculum, so a trained scribe had rival patrons; unification under Akkad (from c. 2334 BCE) and then Ur III narrowed that exit.", "sources": [ "Veldhuis, Niek (2014). History of the Cuneiform Lexical Tradition. Guides to the Mesopotamian Textual Record 6. Munster: Ugarit-Verlag.", "Foster, Benjamin R. (2016). The Age of Agade: Inventing Empire in Ancient Mesopotamia. London and New York: Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/The-Age-of-Agade-Inventing-Empire-in-Ancient-Mesopotamia/Foster/p/book/9781138909755" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Old Kingdom Egypt", "start": -2686, "end": -2181, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 5, "output": 6, "composite": 6.6, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Old Kingdom Egypt", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Egypt", "span": "rising 3100 to 1070 BCE", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Cave colonized", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (Amun priesthood)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (curriculum unchanged for millennia)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (no competing institution)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 3 }, { "name": "Late Egypt / Amun", "start": -1070, "end": -332, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 6, "output": 3, "composite": 5.6, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": "Late Egypt / Amun", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Egypt", "span": "stagnation 1070 to 332 BCE", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Cave colonized", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (Amun priesthood)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (curriculum unchanged for millennia)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Egypt: “Yes (no competing institution)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": "Ouroboros: the oldest case", "bookFateSource": "25c Field Guide, Ouroboros", "plate": null, "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Athens", "start": -480, "end": -322, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 4, "output": 10, "composite": 6.2, "outcome": "Explosive", "sourceRow": "Athens", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Athens’ teachers of higher learning: sophists, rhetoricians and the philosophical schools (Academy, Lyceum)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 10, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "No licence or gate: anyone could teach for fees, schools such as the Academy and the Lyceum (335 BCE) were private associations, and literacy was acquired privately (Harris).", "sources": [ "Lynch, John Patrick (1972). Aristotle’s School: A Study of a Greek Educational Institution. Berkeley: University of California Press. https://archive.org/details/aristotlesschool0000lync", "Harris, William V. (1989). Ancient Literacy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674033818" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "There was no corporate body setting common curricula or standards; the sovereign popular courts and assembly stood above intellectuals, as the trial of Socrates (399 BCE) shows, though Dover judges much of the later evidence of persecution unreliable.", "sources": [ "Lynch, John Patrick (1972). Aristotle’s School: A Study of a Greek Educational Institution. Berkeley: University of California Press. https://archive.org/details/aristotlesschool0000lync", "Dover, K. J. (1975). ‘The Freedom of the Intellectual in Greek Society.’ Talanta 7: 24-54. https://philpapers.org/rec/DOVTFO" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was everywhere: sophists were itinerant from many poleis, Plato went to Syracuse, and Aristotle left Athens for Assos and Macedon and back again.", "sources": [ "Lynch, John Patrick (1972). Aristotle’s School: A Study of a Greek Educational Institution. Berkeley: University of California Press. https://archive.org/details/aristotlesschool0000lync", "Harris, William V. (1989). Ancient Literacy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674033818" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": "Top ten no. 3", "slavery": 7 }, { "name": "Rome Republic-Empire", "start": -200, "end": 200, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 8, "output": 7, "composite": 8.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Rome Republic-Empire", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Roman Empire", "span": "rising 200 BCE to 200 CE", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": "Dragon scattered", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No (Church was the exit)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": "Top ten no. 7", "slavery": 6 }, { "name": "Rome Decline", "start": 200, "end": 476, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 5, "output": 4, "composite": 3.9, "outcome": "Declining", "sourceRow": "Rome Decline", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Roman Empire", "span": "stagnation 284 to 476", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": "Dragon scattered", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Roman Empire: “No (Church was the exit)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Dark Ages W. Europe", "start": 500, "end": 800, "axes": { "stability": 2, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 3, "output": 2, "composite": 2.2, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": "Dark Ages W. Europe", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The monastic scriptoria that held Latin literacy (Irish houses and their continental foundations, and Benedictine houses), following the book’s call on the Irish monasteries (L1298)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: copying required ‘the abbot’s permission’, and the monastery was the only route into book learning (L1298); McKitterick shows written culture carried by ecclesiastical centres until the Carolingian reforms after this row closes.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1298", "McKitterick, Rosamond (1989). The Carolingians and the Written Word. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/carolingians-and-the-written-word/2405991C021D1336D75DC8B669A0A25D", "Charles-Edwards, T. M. (2000). Early Christian Ireland. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/early-christian-ireland/9C1945FDBFF3B93F35FF3C08DFA0BCB4" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘the Rule written and enforced by monks alone’ (L1298); monastic rules (Columbanus, Benedict) set the house’s own discipline and training under the abbot.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1298", "Lawrence, C. H. (1984; 4th ed. 2015). Medieval Monasticism: Forms of Religious Life in Western Europe in the Middle Ages. London: Longman / Routledge. https://archive.org/details/medievalmonastic0000lawr", "Charles-Edwards, T. M. (2000). Early Christian Ireland. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/early-christian-ireland/9C1945FDBFF3B93F35FF3C08DFA0BCB4" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: the Rule ‘forbade them to leave and forbade them to reproduce’, exit ‘in the most literal form’ (L1298); the Benedictine vow of stability bound the monk to his house. Caveat: Irish peregrinatio (Columbanus to Luxeuil and Bobbio) shows monks could move between houses with sanction.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1298", "Lawrence, C. H. (1984; 4th ed. 2015). Medieval Monasticism: Forms of Religious Life in Western Europe in the Middle Ages. London: Longman / Routledge. https://archive.org/details/medievalmonastic0000lawr", "Charles-Edwards, T. M. (2000). Early Christian Ireland. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/early-christian-ireland/9C1945FDBFF3B93F35FF3C08DFA0BCB4" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 3 }, { "name": "Byzantine Early", "start": 527, "end": 1081, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 6, "output": 6, "composite": 6.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The lettered class of Constantinople: civil officials, clergy, notaries and teachers (the church hierarchy and imperial service together), judged 527-1081." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "The imperial administration, Roman law (Justinian’s codification 529-534) and the Constantinople bureaucracy survived the 7th-century loss of Egypt and Syria and the reorganisation into themes, and the capital never fell; but violent usurpations were frequent, Iconoclasm split the church c. 730-843, and Manzikert (1071) opened a decade of civil war. Scored like Song: heavy military pressure, institutions held.", "sources": [ "Haldon, John F. (1990; rev. ed. 1997). Byzantium in the Seventh Century: The Transformation of a Culture. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/byzantium-in-the-seventh-century/C5C6EDC5699206AA9CDEE52655D0B809", "Treadgold, Warren (1997). A History of the Byzantine State and Society. Stanford University Press. https://www.sup.org/books/history/history-byzantine-state-and-society", "Kazhdan, Alexander P. (ed.) (1991). The Oxford Dictionary of Byzantium. 3 vols. Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-dictionary-of-byzantium-9780195046526" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "Laiou and Morrisson describe a monetised, state-steered economy that contracted sharply in the 7th-8th centuries and expanded again from the 9th to the 11th, with the gold nomisma stable until the mid-11th-century debasement. High for its era but below Abbasid and Tang levels (both 9).", "sources": [ "Laiou, Angeliki E. and Cecile Morrisson (2007). The Byzantine Economy. Cambridge Medieval Textbooks. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Byzantine_Economy.html?id=kP_WHtj1oUUC", "Laiou, Angeliki E. (ed.) (2002). The Economic History of Byzantium from the Seventh through the Fifteenth Century. 3 vols. Dumbarton Oaks Studies 39. Washington, DC: Dumbarton Oaks. https://www.doaks.org/resources/publications/books/the-economic-history-of-byzantium" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "A literate class of officials, clergy and notaries concentrated in Constantinople, with lay literacy wider than in the Latin West but education private and small-scale outside the capital (Browning); no institution comparable in scale to Abbasid madrasa networks or Tang examination candidates.", "sources": [ "Browning, Robert (1978). ‘Literacy in the Byzantine World.’ Byzantine and Modern Greek Studies 4(1): 39-54. https://doi.org/10.1179/030701378806931734", "Lemerle, Paul (1986). Byzantine Humanism: The First Phase. Notes and Remarks on Education and Culture in Byzantium from its Origins to the 10th Century. Trans. H. Lindsay and A. Moffatt. Byzantina Australiensia 3. Canberra: Australian Association for Byzantine Studies. https://books.google.com/books/about/Byzantine_Humanism_The_First_Phase.html?id=NPA0DwAAQBAJ" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "Justinian’s Corpus Iuris Civilis, Hagia Sophia (532-537) and John Philoponus’ critique of Aristotle are genuine novelty; after the 7th-century break the 9th-10th-century revival (Leo the Mathematician, Photius’ Bibliotheca, the Suda, Constantine VII’s excerpt collections) was mainly compilation and encyclopedism, as Lemerle and the book (L1096) stress.", "sources": [ "Lemerle, Paul (1986). Byzantine Humanism: The First Phase. Notes and Remarks on Education and Culture in Byzantium from its Origins to the 10th Century. Trans. H. Lindsay and A. Moffatt. Byzantina Australiensia 3. Canberra: Australian Association for Byzantine Studies. https://books.google.com/books/about/Byzantine_Humanism_The_First_Phase.html?id=NPA0DwAAQBAJ", "Wilson, N. G. (1983). Scholars of Byzantium. London: Duckworth. https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001092735", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1096" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Some professions had a formal gate: the Book of the Eparch (c. 912) required notaries to be examined on the law before admission to their guild, and Constantine IX created a state law school under a nomophylax (John Xiphilinos) in the 1040s; but general education stayed private and there was no single credential into the bureaucracy or the clergy.", "sources": [ "Kazhdan, Alexander P. (ed.) (1991). The Oxford Dictionary of Byzantium. 3 vols. Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-dictionary-of-byzantium-9780195046526", "Lemerle, Paul (1986). Byzantine Humanism: The First Phase. Notes and Remarks on Education and Culture in Byzantium from its Origins to the 10th Century. Trans. H. Lindsay and A. Moffatt. Byzantina Australiensia 3. Canberra: Australian Association for Byzantine Studies. https://books.google.com/books/about/Byzantine_Humanism_The_First_Phase.html?id=NPA0DwAAQBAJ", "Browning, Robert (1978). ‘Literacy in the Byzantine World.’ Byzantine and Modern Greek Studies 4(1): 39-54. https://doi.org/10.1179/030701378806931734" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The notaries’ guild examined its own candidates through its primikerios, and the clergy governed itself in synods; but emperors appointed patriarchs and teaching chairs (Theophilos gave Leo the Mathematician a public school in the 830s) and imposed Iconoclasm from the throne c. 730-787 and 815-843, an outside check on doctrine.", "sources": [ "Kazhdan, Alexander P. (ed.) (1991). The Oxford Dictionary of Byzantium. 3 vols. Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-dictionary-of-byzantium-9780195046526", "Lemerle, Paul (1986). Byzantine Humanism: The First Phase. Notes and Remarks on Education and Culture in Byzantium from its Origins to the 10th Century. Trans. H. Lindsay and A. Moffatt. Byzantina Australiensia 3. Canberra: Australian Association for Byzantine Studies. https://books.google.com/books/about/Byzantine_Humanism_The_First_Phase.html?id=NPA0DwAAQBAJ", "Haldon, John F. (1990; rev. ed. 1997). Byzantium in the Seventh Century: The Transformation of a Culture. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/byzantium-in-the-seventh-century/C5C6EDC5699206AA9CDEE52655D0B809" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "One emperor and one patriarch controlled office, and the book describes Byzantium as a capital with ‘one emperor, one patriarch, and one curriculum’ (L1086); yet exit existed at a cost: iconophile monks went to Rome and southern Italy, and al-Ma’mun invited Leo the Mathematician to Baghdad c. 830.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1086", "Lemerle, Paul (1986). Byzantine Humanism: The First Phase. Notes and Remarks on Education and Culture in Byzantium from its Origins to the 10th Century. Trans. H. Lindsay and A. Moffatt. Byzantina Australiensia 3. Canberra: Australian Association for Byzantine Studies. https://books.google.com/books/about/Byzantine_Humanism_The_First_Phase.html?id=NPA0DwAAQBAJ", "Kazhdan, Alexander P. (ed.) (1991). The Oxford Dictionary of Byzantium. 3 vols. Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-dictionary-of-byzantium-9780195046526" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Byzantine Late", "start": 1081, "end": 1453, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 4, "output": 4, "composite": 3.7, "outcome": "Declining", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": "Byzantium", "span": "stagnation 1000 to 1453", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": "Dragon scattered", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "The Komnenian restoration (1081-1180) was followed by the Angeloi collapse, the Fourth Crusade’s sack of Constantinople (1204), fifty-seven years of exile governments, restoration in 1261, repeated civil wars (1321-1328, 1341-1347) and vassalage to the Ottomans before 1453. Comparable to Rome Decline (3).", "sources": [ "Angold, Michael (1997). The Byzantine Empire, 1025-1204: A Political History. 2nd ed. London and New York: Longman. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Byzantine_Empire_1025_1204.html?id=wWEbAAAAYAAJ", "Nicol, Donald M. (1993). The Last Centuries of Byzantium, 1261-1453. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/history/european-history-1000-1450/last-centuries-byzantium-12611453-2nd-edition" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "The 12th century saw economic expansion, but trading privileges granted to Venice (chrysobull usually dated 1082) and later to Genoa shifted commercial profit to Italians, and after 1204 the state lost most of its territory and revenue base.", "sources": [ "Laiou, Angeliki E. and Cecile Morrisson (2007). The Byzantine Economy. Cambridge Medieval Textbooks. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Byzantine_Economy.html?id=kP_WHtj1oUUC", "Laiou, Angeliki E. (ed.) (2002). The Economic History of Byzantium from the Seventh through the Fifteenth Century. 3 vols. Dumbarton Oaks Studies 39. Washington, DC: Dumbarton Oaks. https://www.doaks.org/resources/publications/books/the-economic-history-of-byzantium" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "After 1204, and especially after 1261, a shrinking territory; higher learning depended on a few teachers and patrons in Nicaea and then Constantinople and Thessaloniki (Constantinides). A small but real learned elite, comparable to Athens and Sumer (4).", "sources": [ "Constantinides, C. N. (1982). Higher Education in Byzantium in the Thirteenth and Early Fourteenth Centuries (1204-ca. 1310). Texts and Studies of the History of Cyprus 11. Nicosia: Cyprus Research Centre. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Higher-education-in-Byzantium-in-the-thirteenth-and-Constantinides/a6f17140d93c56e459ad5b9c1a16a5efee7a9f6c", "Wilson, N. G. (1983). Scholars of Byzantium. London: Duckworth. https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001092735" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "Eustathios’ Homer commentaries, the Palaiologan philologists (Planoudes, Moschopoulos, Triklinios), Metochites and Gregoras are high-quality work, but mostly editing and commentary on received texts; the argument with Aristotle that fed the Renaissance happened in Italy, as the book notes (L1096).", "sources": [ "Wilson, N. G. (1983). Scholars of Byzantium. London: Duckworth. https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001092735", "Constantinides, C. N. (1982). Higher Education in Byzantium in the Thirteenth and Early Fourteenth Centuries (1204-ca. 1310). Texts and Studies of the History of Cyprus 11. Nicosia: Cyprus Research Centre. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Higher-education-in-Byzantium-in-the-thirteenth-and-Constantinides/a6f17140d93c56e459ad5b9c1a16a5efee7a9f6c", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1096" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Byzantium: “Yes (state church hierarchy)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Byzantium: “Yes (preservation over contestation)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Byzantium: “Partial (military crisis limited exit)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Baghdad / Abbasid", "start": 750, "end": 1258, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 7, "output": 10, "composite": 8.1, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Baghdad / Abbasid", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Islamic Golden Age", "span": "rising 750 to 1100", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": "Dragon slain", "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The ulama (jurists and hadith scholars) of Baghdad and their madrasas; the court translators and scientists of the translation movement are noted where relevant." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 10, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "The ijaza was a personal licence from an individual master, not from an institution, and the ulama had no formal institution controlling membership (Ephrat); even the Nizamiyya (founded 1067) added salaried posts, not a single gate. Court translators and astronomers needed no ulama credential at all (Gutas).", "sources": [ "Makdisi, George (1981). The Rise of Colleges: Institutions of Learning in Islam and the West. Edinburgh University Press. https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-the-rise-of-colleges.html", "Ephrat, Daphna (2000). A Learned Society in a Period of Transition: The Sunni ‘Ulama’ of Eleventh-Century Baghdad. Albany: SUNY Press.", "Gutas, Dimitri (1998). Greek Thought, Arabic Culture: The Graeco-Arabic Translation Movement in Baghdad and Early ‘Abbasid Society (2nd-4th/8th-10th centuries). London and New York: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203017432" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The scholars themselves defined who transmitted legitimate knowledge through teacher networks and the law schools (Ephrat), and the failure of the caliph’s mihna (833-848) confirmed their autonomy in doctrine (Hurvitz); but there were several competing schools rather than one body, qadis were state-appointed, and Nizam al-Mulk chose the Nizamiyya’s professors (al-Ghazali, 1091).", "sources": [ "Ephrat, Daphna (2000). A Learned Society in a Period of Transition: The Sunni ‘Ulama’ of Eleventh-Century Baghdad. Albany: SUNY Press.", "Hurvitz, Nimrod (2002). The Formation of Hanbalism: Piety into Power. London: RoutledgeCurzon. https://www.routledge.com/The-Formation-of-Hanbalism-Piety-into-Power/Hurvitz/p/book/9780415616416", "Makdisi, George (1981). The Rise of Colleges: Institutions of Learning in Islam and the West. Edinburgh University Press. https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-the-rise-of-colleges.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was wide: rival courts in Cordoba, Fatimid Cairo (from 969) and the Buyid, Samanid and Seljuk capitals, plus many patrons inside Baghdad (caliphs, the Barmakids, the Banu Musa) who sponsored translation; the dataset’s civilisation-level row also scores exit 0 for scholarly mobility.", "sources": [ "Gutas, Dimitri (1998). Greek Thought, Arabic Culture: The Graeco-Arabic Translation Movement in Baghdad and Early ‘Abbasid Society (2nd-4th/8th-10th centuries). London and New York: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203017432", "Makdisi, George (1981). The Rise of Colleges: Institutions of Learning in Islam and the West. Edinburgh University Press. https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-the-rise-of-colleges.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": "Dragon slain (Baghdad, 1258)", "bookFateSource": "25c Prologue; earlier plate, top ten no. 2", "plate": "Top ten no. 2 (Islamic Golden Age)", "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Post-Mongol Iraq", "start": 1258, "end": 1500, "axes": { "stability": 1, "surplus": 1, "carriers": 2, "output": 1, "composite": 1.2, "outcome": "Total Collapse", "sourceRow": "Post-Mongol Iraq", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The surviving ulama and scribal class of Iraq under the Ilkhans, Jalayirids, Timur and the Turkmen dynasties." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 1, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 1, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 1, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Transmission kept the personal ijaza form documented for the neighbouring Mamluk cities, with no institution holding a monopoly on entry; nothing indicates a new gate in Iraq.", "sources": [ "Berkey, Jonathan (1992). The Transmission of Knowledge in Medieval Cairo: A Social History of Islamic Education. Princeton University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7zvxj4", "Chamberlain, Michael (1994). Knowledge and Social Practice in Medieval Damascus, 1190-1350. Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization. Cambridge University Press. https://archive.org/details/knowledgesocialp0000cham" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Half, the same split as Abbasid Baghdad. The scholars still certified one another: hadith was transmitted and checked in Baghdad under Ilkhanid rule through audition and reading certificates (samāʿāt, qirāʾāt) written by the teachers themselves, at the Mustanṣiriyya, the Caliphal Mosque and in private homes (Brinkmann), and the city’s scholarly and library networks recovered under Mongol rule (Biran). But the posts were in the state’s gift: appointing professors at Baghdad’s madrasas was a prerogative of the ṣāḥib dīvān of Iraq, a Mongol-appointed official (De Nicola, citing Wu), and the Mongols appointed the judges (quḍāt).", "sources": [ "Biran, Michal (2019). Libraries, Books, and Transmission of Knowledge in Ilkhanid Baghdad. Journal of the Economic and Social History of the Orient 62(2-3): 464-502. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685209-12341485", "De Nicola, Bruno (2025). Persian Books from Mongol Baghdad: A Survey of Manuscript Evidence. medieval worlds 22: 14-44, at 36 n.111 (citing Wu, Pai-nan Rashid, The Fall of Baghdad and the Mongol Rule in al-Iraq, 1258-1335, PhD thesis, University of Utah, 1974, p. 158). https://doi.org/10.1553/medievalworlds_no22_2025s14", "Brinkmann, Stefanie (2025). Hadith scholarship in Mongol Baghdad: al-Qazwīnī’s transmission of al-Baghawī’s Maṣābīḥ al-sunna. medieval worlds 22: 68-102. https://doi.org/10.1553/medievalworlds_no22_2025s68" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Iraq was a contested province of successive dynasties (Ilkhanid, Jalayirid, Timurid, Qara Qoyunlu, Aq Qoyunlu); learned men worked at or were carried off to other capitals (Tabriz; Samarkand after Timur’s sack of 1401), so leaving was easy and common.", "sources": [ "Wing, Patrick (2016). The Jalayirids: Dynastic State Formation in the Mongol Middle East. Edinburgh University Press. https://www.loc.gov/resource/gdcebookspublic.2020719502" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 3 }, { "name": "Tang China", "start": 618, "end": 907, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 8, "output": 9, "composite": 8.7, "outcome": "Peak Compounding", "sourceRow": "Tang China", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The scholar-official class and its routes into office: the civil examinations (keju) alongside hereditary privilege and recommendation." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The examinations were a real gate that grew in weight: a study of 3,640 epitaphs finds aristocratic pedigree dominated advancement before 690 CE and exam success mattered increasingly afterwards; but pedigree, father’s rank and other non-exam routes stayed open throughout.", "sources": [ "Wen, Fangqi, Erik H. Wang and Michael Hout (2024). ‘Social mobility in the Tang Dynasty as the Imperial Examination rose and aristocratic family pedigree declined, 618-907 CE.’ PNAS 121(4): e2305564121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2305564121", "Twitchett, Denis (ed.) (1979). The Cambridge History of China, Vol. 3: Sui and T’ang China, 589-906, Part I. Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Degree-holding officials set and graded the examinations (moved from the Ministry of Personnel to the Ministry of Rites in 736), but results depended heavily on patrons, recommendations and court intervention, and aristocratic clans still weighed on appointment (Moore).", "sources": [ "Moore, Oliver J. (2004). Rituals of Recruitment in Tang China: Reading an Annual Programme in the Collected Statements by Wang Dingbao (870-940). Sinica Leidensia 65. Leiden: Brill. https://brill.com/display/title/8604", "Twitchett, Denis (ed.) (1979). The Cambridge History of China, Vol. 3: Sui and T’ang China, 589-906, Part I. Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "A unified empire with one examination system, but alternatives existed: Buddhist and Daoist institutions, and after the An Lushan rebellion (755) provincial military governors hired literati outside the court’s patronage.", "sources": [ "Twitchett, Denis (ed.) (1979). The Cambridge History of China, Vol. 3: Sui and T’ang China, 589-906, Part I. Cambridge University Press.", "Elman, Benjamin A. (2013). Civil Examinations and Meritocracy in Late Imperial China. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674724952" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Song China", "start": 960, "end": 1279, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 9, "output": 10, "composite": 8.3, "outcome": "Explosive", "sourceRow": "Song China", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Song China", "span": "rising 960 to 1279", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 10, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Song China: “No (curriculum in flux)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Song China: “No (Wang Anshi reforms)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Song China: “No (scholar mobility)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": "Top ten no. 1", "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Ming China pre-1487", "start": 1368, "end": 1487, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 9, "output": 7, "composite": 8.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Ming China pre-1487", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "China (Pre-1487)", "span": "rising, to 1487", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Ouroboros", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes (Eight-Legged Essay after 1487)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes (haijin closed coast)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": "Top ten no. 10 (Ming)", "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Ming China post-1487", "start": 1487, "end": 1644, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 9, "output": 3, "composite": 6.5, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": "Ming China post-1487", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "China (Pre-1487)", "span": "stagnation 1487 to 1905", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Ouroboros", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes (Eight-Legged Essay after 1487)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, China (Pre-1487): “Yes (haijin closed coast)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": "Ouroboros (the bite, 1487)", "bookFateSource": "25c Field Guide, Bite; earlier plate, top ten no. 10", "plate": "Top ten no. 10 (Ming)", "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Ottoman 1453-1700", "start": 1453, "end": 1700, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 7, "output": 6, "composite": 7.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Ottoman 1453-1700", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Ottoman Ilmiye", "span": "rising 1300 to 1600", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": "Tail spat out", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Yes (ten ranked madrasa tiers)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Yes (hereditary great mevali families)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Partial”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Ottoman 1700-1922", "start": 1700, "end": 1922, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 7, "output": 3, "composite": 5.4, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": "Ottoman 1700-1922", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Ottoman Ilmiye", "span": "stagnation 1600 to 1839", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": "Tail spat out", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Yes (ten ranked madrasa tiers)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Yes (hereditary great mevali families)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Ottoman Ilmiye: “Partial”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": "Posture: clenched, 270 years", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, bottom ten no. 9 (Late Ottoman Empire)", "plate": "Bottom ten no. 9", "slavery": 4 }, { "name": "Renaissance Italy", "start": 1350, "end": 1550, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 6, "output": 10, "composite": 7.1, "outcome": "Explosive", "sourceRow": "Renaissance Italy", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Humanists, university teachers and artists across the Italian city-states, following the book’s Florence call (L1126)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 10, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "The book: ‘Not one of the three conditions is met. No monopoly’ (L1126). Universities were many and rival (Padua, Bologna, Pisa, Pavia and others), and humanists often worked outside them entirely (Grendler, Kristeller). Caveat: Florence’s judges’ and notaries’ guild did examine its own members.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1126", "Grendler, Paul F. (2002). The Universities of the Italian Renaissance. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.", "Kristeller, Paul Oskar (1979). Renaissance Thought and Its Sources. Ed. Michael Mooney. New York: Columbia University Press. https://archive.org/details/renaissancethoug0000kris_i6m0" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "The book: ‘no sealed class’ (L1126); city governments hired and paid professors and set university budgets (Grendler), and patrons, not a self-governing class, set the humanist agenda.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1126", "Grendler, Paul F. (2002). The Universities of the Italian Renaissance. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "The book: ‘exit everywhere’, the Medici, the Papacy and the Sforza bid for the same scholars, and a scholar expelled from one court could walk to the next (L1126).", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1126", "Kristeller, Paul Oskar (1979). Renaissance Thought and Its Sources. Ed. Michael Mooney. New York: Columbia University Press. https://archive.org/details/renaissancethoug0000kris_i6m0" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": "No fate: open", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, top ten no. 4 (Renaissance Florence)", "plate": "Top ten no. 4 (Florence)", "slavery": 2 }, { "name": "Spain 1492-1700", "start": 1492, "end": 1700, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 6, "output": 5, "composite": 6.7, "outcome": "Declining", "sourceRow": "Spain 1492-1700", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Spanish Empire", "span": "stagnation 1475 to 1700", "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2, "datasetFate": "Ouroboros", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Spanish Empire: “Partial”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Spanish Empire: “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Spanish Empire: “Partial”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": "Fate not named; drove out its own scribes", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, bottom ten no. 3 (Post-1492 Spain)", "plate": "Bottom ten no. 3", "slavery": 6 }, { "name": "Mughal India", "start": 1556, "end": 1707, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 8, "output": 6, "composite": 7.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Mughal India", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Mughal India", "span": "whole case", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Mughal India: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Capture matrix, Mughal India: “Partial”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Mughal India: “No (successor courts = exit)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 7 }, { "name": "Joseon Korea", "start": 1392, "end": 1910, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 5, "carriers": 6, "output": 4, "composite": 5.5, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": "Joseon Korea", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Joseon Korea", "span": "whole case", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Tail spat out", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Joseon Korea: “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Joseon Korea: “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Joseon Korea: “Yes”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": "Top ten no. 9", "slavery": 3 }, { "name": "Tokugawa Japan", "start": 1603, "end": 1868, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 7, "output": 5, "composite": 6.5, "outcome": "Mixed", "sourceRow": "Tokugawa Japan", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": "Tokugawa Japan", "span": "whole case", "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Tokugawa Japan: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Tokugawa Japan: “No”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Capture matrix, Tokugawa Japan: “No (competing domain schools)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": "Not a dragon case", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, top ten no. 5", "plate": "Top ten no. 5", "slavery": 2 }, { "name": "Meiji Japan", "start": 1868, "end": 1945, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 8, "output": 7, "composite": 7.0, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The route into the higher civil service and the state academy: the Imperial University (above all the Todai law faculty) and the Higher Civil Service Examination (kōtō bunkan shiken) from 1894." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "The Meiji constitutional order (1889) and a career bureaucracy recruited by examination ran continuously to 1945 and survived changes of cabinet, but the period opens with the Boshin War and the Satsuma Rebellion (1877), includes the assassination of sitting prime ministers (Hara 1921, Inukai 1932) and the 26 February 1936 coup attempt, and ends in total defeat; V-Dem RoW codes Japan a closed autocracy throughout. Institutions held through violent politics, so 7 (Ottoman/Mughal level), below Tokugawa’s 9.", "sources": [ "Gordon, A. (2003). A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present. Oxford University Press.", "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html", "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "Maddison 2023 puts Japanese GDP per head at 1,580 (1870), 2,431 (1913) and 4,882 (1940) against US 4,803, 10,108 and 12,005 (2011 int.$): roughly a quarter to two-fifths of the frontier, rising fast and enough to fund a navy and two victorious wars, but well short of the leaders. Era-relative 6, level with Tokugawa and the late Ottomans.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J. L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. Maddison Project Database 2023 (series via Our World in Data, 2011 int.$). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "Compulsory schooling from 1872 raised primary attendance from 61.2% (1895) to 95.6% (1905) and 97.4% (1907), when compulsory schooling was extended to six years; on top sat Tokyo (Imperial) University (1877/1886), Kyoto (1897) and further imperial universities, higher schools and private colleges, in a population that roughly doubled. Primary coverage matched the Western frontier though tertiary enrollment was narrow, so 8 (Post-WWII level), one step above Tokugawa.", "sources": [ "Ministry of Education (MEXT), Japan’s Modern Educational System (1980), ‘The Upward Trend in the Attendance Rate’. https://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/hakusho/html/others/detail/1317322.htm", "Passin, H. (1965). Society and Education in Japan. Teachers College Press, Columbia University. https://weai.columbia.edu/content/herbert-passin-society-and-education-japan-teachers-college-press-1965", "Bartholomew, J. R. (1989). The Formation of Science in Japan: Building a Research Tradition. Yale University Press. (reviewed Science 247:223, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.247.4939.223)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "Japan built a domestic research tradition between 1868 and 1921 (Bartholomew) and produced frontier-level results: Kitasato’s work on tetanus antitoxin and co-discovery of the plague bacillus (1894), and Yukawa’s meson theory (1935, Nobel 1949); but much output was adoption and translation of Western science, and 1930s thought control narrowed it. Solidly second-tier against Germany, Britain and the US: 7.", "sources": [ "Bartholomew, J. R. (1989). The Formation of Science in Japan: Building a Research Tradition. Yale University Press. (reviewed Science 247:223, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.247.4939.223)", "Gordon, A. (2003). A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present. Oxford University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "From 1887 to 1893 Todai law and letters graduates were exempt from the higher civil-service examination; after 1893 to 94 nearly all aspirants to elite administrative posts had to pass it, and Todai supplied 76.3% of successful administrative candidates in 1894 to 1917 and 62.4% over 1894 to 1947 (Koh, Table 2, after Hata 1983). A single legally enforced gate held by the Todai-trained bureaucracy, as with Britain’s post-1855 exam: 1.", "sources": [ "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html", "Spaulding, R. M., Jr. (1967). Imperial Japan’s Higher Civil Service Examinations. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691649757/imperial-japans-higher-civil-service-examinations" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The bureaucracy was built before the Diet existed and was answerable to the throne, not the legislature; Koh notes the Diet ‘never attained sufficient power to control the executive branch’, and the Peace Preservation Law (1925) muzzled the press and academy. But Taisho party cabinets and a partly free press gave a real if weak outside check (interpretation call 7), so ½.", "sources": [ "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html", "Spaulding, R. M., Jr. (1967). Imperial Japan’s Higher Civil Service Examinations. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691649757/imperial-japans-higher-civil-service-examinations", "Gordon, A. (2003). A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present. Oxford University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Rival institutions existed: private universities (Keio, Waseda) and the zaibatsu offered careers outside the state route, which by call 8 points to 0 for most of the period. From 1925 the Peace Preservation Law and the purges of dissenting scholars (the Minobe affair, 1935) closed exit for dissent inside Japan. Weighed over the whole period: ½.", "sources": [ "Gordon, A. (2003). A Modern History of Japan: From Tokugawa Times to the Present. Oxford University Press.", "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Post-WWII Japan", "start": 1945, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 8, "output": 9, "composite": 8.5, "outcome": "Recovery", "sourceRow": "Post-WWII Japan", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The credential route into the national civil service (National Public Service Examination under the National Personnel Authority), the professions and the academy, headed by the University of Tokyo." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "A formal examination gate into the elite civil service remained, and Todai still supplied 49.4% of senior entrants in 1965 to 74 and three to four in ten successful candidates in later years (Koh); but entry to most knowledge work runs through many universities and corporate hiring with no single gate. Partial: ½.", "sources": [ "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Ministries ran their own recruitment, wrote most legislation and steered industry (Johnson), and national-university faculties governed their own chairs, so the class largely polices itself; but it answers to an elected Diet whose ‘tribal’ zoku members, as Koh notes, undercut bureaucratic power, and to courts and a free press. V-Dem RoW codes Japan a liberal democracy from the end of the Occupation. By call 7, ½.", "sources": [ "Johnson, C. (1982). MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925-1975. Stanford University Press.", "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html", "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Carriers can leave for private employers at tolerable cost (senior officials routinely move to firms through amakudari, which the National Personnel Authority licenses: 318 exemptions in 1985), emigrate freely, or work at private universities. Exit open: 0.", "sources": [ "Koh, B. C. (1989). Japan’s Administrative Elite. University of California Press. https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/public/book/japan-s-administrative-elite.html", "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 0 }, { "name": "Post-WWII Germany", "start": 1945, "end": 1990, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 8, "output": 9, "composite": 8.5, "outcome": "Recovery", "sourceRow": "Post-WWII Germany", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "West Germany (Federal Republic) only; the GDR is not scored. The route into the higher civil service (state law examinations, the ‘Juristenmonopol’) and the professoriate (Habilitation and chair appointments)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The state law examinations (Befähigung zum Richteramt) were the usual gate into the upper civil service, and Dahrendorf describes a jurist-dominated elite; the Habilitation gated the professoriate. But the gates were split across the Länder and many universities, and engineering, science and industry offered careers without them. Partial: ½.", "sources": [ "Dahrendorf, R. (1967). Society and Democracy in Germany. Doubleday (English ed.; German orig. 1965).", "Bundesverfassungsgericht, Hochschul-Urteil of 29 May 1973, 1 BvR 424/71 and 325/72 (BVerfGE 35, 79). Summary: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hochschulurteil" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Professors controlled Habilitation and appointments in the Ordinarien university, and the Federal Constitutional Court (Hochschul-Urteil, 29 May 1973) required that professors keep decisive influence over research and appointments even in the reformed ‘group university’. But the state set the law examinations, and the whole system answered to a parliament, courts and a free press (V-Dem RoW: liberal democracy throughout). By call 7, ½.", "sources": [ "Bundesverfassungsgericht, Hochschul-Urteil of 29 May 1973, 1 BvR 424/71 and 325/72 (BVerfGE 35, 79). Summary: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hochschulurteil", "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)", "Dahrendorf, R. (1967). Society and Democracy in Germany. Doubleday (English ed.; German orig. 1965)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Carriers could move between Länder universities, into industry, or abroad without legal barrier; the closed border was East Germany’s, not the Federal Republic’s. Exit open: 0.", "sources": [ "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)", "Dahrendorf, R. (1967). Society and Democracy in Germany. Doubleday (English ed.; German orig. 1965)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 0 }, { "name": "Comancheria", "start": 1680, "end": 1875, "axes": { "stability": 4, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 2, "output": 2, "composite": 2.8, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Interpretation call 10: no scribal credential exists. Judged on the institution that controlled entry into office and the knowledge-holding group: band leadership (civil and war leaders) and the band councils of family heads." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 4, "why": "The band-and-division political order held for about a century of dominance on the southern plains, but population fell from a peak of perhaps 40,000 in the late 1770s to 20,000 to 30,000 by the 1830s (smallpox 1780 to 81, repeated epidemics, cholera 1849), and to 1,597 at the 1875 reservation census, ending in military defeat and surrender at Fort Sill. A durable order with repeated shocks and a collapse at the end: 4.", "sources": [ "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/", "Texas Department of Transportation (2021). Tribal Histories: Comanche Nation Research Report (citing Hämäläinen 2008:178-179; Jordan & MacDonald 1979; Lipscomb 2021). https://ftp.txdot.gov/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/415-03-rpt.pdf" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "Hämäläinen shows a rich horse-and-bison economy with large herds and a trade and raiding network that extracted horses, captives and goods from New Mexico, Texas and northern Mexico; Kavanagh traces how these resources supported leaders. But the economy remained nomadic, with no large non-producing specialist class; well below the era’s agrarian and industrial leaders: 4.", "sources": [ "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/", "Kavanagh, T. W. (1996). Comanche Political History: An Ethnohistorical Perspective, 1706-1875 (reissued as The Comanches: A History, 1706-1875). University of Nebraska Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Comanches.html?id=RFW8_SWARicC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 2, "why": "A non-literate polity: no schools, script or written records, with total population of tens of thousands at peak (about 40,000 in the late 1770s) and falling. Knowledge carried orally by family heads, elders and war leaders only. Just above Tasmania: 2.", "sources": [ "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/", "Texas Department of Transportation (2021). Tribal Histories: Comanche Nation Research Report (citing Hämäläinen 2008:178-179; Jordan & MacDonald 1979; Lipscomb 2021). https://ftp.txdot.gov/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/415-03-rpt.pdf", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 550" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "No scribal output: the Comanches adopted and mastered the horse, the gun and metal tools and built an equestrian economy, but produced no written record, manual or accumulating text (the book: they ‘could not write a veterinary manual’). Oral innovation only, as with Tasmania: 2.", "sources": [ "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 550" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Leadership was achieved, not certified: civil leaders were respected elders whose authority was not compulsory, war leaders were chosen for prowess, and each band had an advisory council of family heads. There was no formal gate or credential to hold: 0.", "sources": [ "Texas Department of Transportation (2021). Tribal Histories: Comanche Nation Research Report (citing Hämäläinen 2008:178-179; Jordan & MacDonald 1979; Lipscomb 2021). https://ftp.txdot.gov/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/415-03-rpt.pdf", "Kavanagh, T. W. (1996). Comanche Political History: An Ethnohistorical Perspective, 1706-1875 (reissued as The Comanches: A History, 1706-1875). University of Nebraska Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Comanches.html?id=RFW8_SWARicC", "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "No corporate class set standards for its own entry: leaders’ powers were kept in check by warriors who could rise in status through their own deeds, and followers conferred or withdrew support. Nothing closed or self-policing to score: 0.", "sources": [ "Texas Department of Transportation (2021). Tribal Histories: Comanche Nation Research Report (citing Hämäläinen 2008:178-179; Jordan & MacDonald 1979; Lipscomb 2021). https://ftp.txdot.gov/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/415-03-rpt.pdf", "Kavanagh, T. W. (1996). Comanche Political History: An Ethnohistorical Perspective, 1706-1875 (reissued as The Comanches: A History, 1706-1875). University of Nebraska Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Comanches.html?id=RFW8_SWARicC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Kavanagh’s political history turns on bands and divisions coming together and dispersing; people could leave one band’s leader for another, and Comanches also allied with, and moved among, Kiowa, Wichita and other partners (Hämäläinen). Exit was cheap: 0.", "sources": [ "Kavanagh, T. W. (1996). Comanche Political History: An Ethnohistorical Perspective, 1706-1875 (reissued as The Comanches: A History, 1706-1875). University of Nebraska Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Comanches.html?id=RFW8_SWARicC", "Hämäläinen, P. (2008). The Comanche Empire. Yale University Press (Lamar Series in Western History). https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300151176/the-comanche-empire/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Maori NZ", "start": 1800, "end": 1870, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 3, "output": 3, "composite": 3.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The tohunga and the whare wānanga (schools of learning) that controlled esoteric knowledge (whakapapa, karakia, lore) within each iwi; call 10 applied to the pre-literate knowledge class, with mission schools as the rival route after the 1830s." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "The Musket Wars (1807 to 1845, mostly 1818 to 1840) killed as many as 20,000 people in three thousand or more battles and raids and enslaved tens of thousands; British sovereignty in 1840 was followed by the New Zealand Wars of the 1840s and 1860s and large-scale land loss. Hapū and iwi institutions persisted but under repeated violent shocks: 3 (Rome Decline level).", "sources": [ "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Musket wars’. https://teara.govt.nz/en/musket-wars/print", "Belich, J. (1996). Making Peoples: A History of the New Zealanders from Polynesian Settlement to the End of the Nineteenth Century. Allen Lane / Penguin Press. https://natlib.govt.nz/records/20753328", "Belich, J. (1986). The New Zealand Wars and the Victorian Interpretation of Racial Conflict. Auckland University Press / Penguin.", "Ballara, A. (1998). Iwi: The Dynamics of Māori Tribal Organisation from c.1769 to c.1945. Victoria University Press. https://teherengawakapress.co.nz/products/iwi" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "Māori engaged successfully in the new market up to the mid-1850s, growing wheat and potatoes for export and settlers and investing in flour mills and coastal schooners, then declined sharply by the 1860s with land alienation (Petrie). Real but brief surplus, far below the era’s industrial leaders: 4.", "sources": [ "Petrie, H. (2006). Chiefs of Industry: Māori Tribal Enterprise in Early Colonial New Zealand. Auckland University Press. https://aucklanduniversitypress.co.nz/chiefs-of-industry-maori-tribal-enterprise-in-early-colonial-new-zealand/", "Belich, J. (1996). Making Peoples: A History of the New Zealanders from Polynesian Settlement to the End of the Nineteenth Century. Allen Lane / Penguin Press. https://natlib.govt.nz/records/20753328" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "Population fell from about 100,000 in 1769 to 56,049 at the 1857 to 58 census. Against that, literacy spread fast: by the early 1840s about half of adult Māori could read and write to some extent, and 60,000 copies of the Māori New Testament were distributed by 1845; McKenzie cautions that reading was often shallow and scripture-bound. A small, shrinking population with rapid partial literacy: 3.", "sources": [ "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Taupori Māori, Māori population change’. https://teara.govt.nz/en/taupori-maori-maori-population-change/print", "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Māori education, mātauranga’ (pages 1-2: traditional whare wānanga; missionaries and the early colonial period). https://teara.govt.nz/en/maori-education-matauranga/print", "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Missions and missionaries: Māori converts’. https://teara.govt.nz/en/missions-and-missionaries/page-5", "McKenzie, D. F. (1985). Oral Culture, Literacy and Print in Early New Zealand: The Treaty of Waitangi. Victoria University Press / Alexander Turnbull Library Endowment Trust." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Print in Māori was mostly mission scripture and devotional texts, later government notices and Māori-language newspapers from 1842 (Parkinson & Griffith list all Māori imprints to 1900); Māori-authored letters, petitions and manuscript whakapapa grew, but little new knowledge was written down. Oral learning continued in the whare wānanga. Output largely imported rather than new: 3.", "sources": [ "Parkinson, P. & Griffith, P. (2004). Books in Māori 1815-1900: An Annotated Bibliography / Ngā Tānga Reo Māori. Reed / Alexander Turnbull Library. https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/books/ALMA2004-9917857423502836-Books-in-M%C4%81ori, 1815-1900, -an-", "McKenzie, D. F. (1985). Oral Culture, Literacy and Print in Early New Zealand: The Treaty of Waitangi. Victoria University Press / Alexander Turnbull Library Endowment Trust.", "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Māori education, mātauranga’ (pages 1-2: traditional whare wānanga; missionaries and the early colonial period). https://teara.govt.nz/en/maori-education-matauranga/print" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The whare wānanga was reserved for a select few of chiefly lineage and aptitude, taught under tapu, and was the gate to tohunga status within each tribe. But every iwi had its own institution, and from the 1830s mission schools offered a rival route to literacy and religious authority: ½.", "sources": [ "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Māori education, mātauranga’ (pages 1-2: traditional whare wānanga; missionaries and the early colonial period). https://teara.govt.nz/en/maori-education-matauranga/print", "Best, E. (1923). The Maori School of Learning: Its Objects, Methods and Ceremonial. Dominion Museum Monograph No. 6, Government Printer, Wellington." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Tohunga chose the students, set the curriculum (the three kete of knowledge) and tested and graduated their own pupils, with no outside body grading them; the institution declined in this period but was never regulated from outside it. Full: 1.", "sources": [ "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Māori education, mātauranga’ (pages 1-2: traditional whare wānanga; missionaries and the early colonial period). https://teara.govt.nz/en/maori-education-matauranga/print", "Best, E. (1923). The Maori School of Learning: Its Objects, Methods and Ceremonial. Dominion Museum Monograph No. 6, Government Printer, Wellington." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Hapū formed, split and moved (Ballara), so allegiance could shift; knowledge could go to a rival tribe, and from the 1830s mission schools, Christian teaching and later Kīngitanga institutions were open alternatives. Exit open: 0.", "sources": [ "Ballara, A. (1998). Iwi: The Dynamics of Māori Tribal Organisation from c.1769 to c.1945. Victoria University Press. https://teherengawakapress.co.nz/products/iwi", "Te Ara: The Encyclopedia of New Zealand, ‘Māori education, mātauranga’ (pages 1-2: traditional whare wānanga; missionaries and the early colonial period). https://teara.govt.nz/en/maori-education-matauranga/print", "Belich, J. (1996). Making Peoples: A History of the New Zealanders from Polynesian Settlement to the End of the Nineteenth Century. Allen Lane / Penguin Press. https://natlib.govt.nz/records/20753328" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Kerala / India", "start": 1400, "end": 1800, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 5, "output": 7, "composite": 6, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Kerala", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Kerala school of astronomy and mathematics: the Namboodiri Brahmin teacher lineages (Madhava to Jyeshthadeva) and their associated households." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘the monopoly confined to Namboodiri Brahmins’ (L912). Plofker and Sarma describe transmission from teacher to pupil within a small caste-based lineage.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 912", "Plofker, Kim (2009). Mathematics in India. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691120676/mathematics-in-india", "Sarma, K. V. (1972). A History of the Kerala School of Hindu Astronomy (in Perspective). Hoshiarpur: Vishveshvaranand Institute, Panjab University. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1972hksh.book.....S" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘the class self-regulating’ (L912); the lineage set its own texts and commentaries (e.g. Yuktibhasa c. 1530) without outside examination.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 912", "Plofker, Kim (2009). Mathematics in India. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691120676/mathematics-in-india" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘no competing tradition in the region’ (L912); Sarma’s survey shows the school’s works stayed in Kerala manuscript collections.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 912", "Sarma, K. V. (1972). A History of the Kerala School of Hindu Astronomy (in Perspective). Hoshiarpur: Vishveshvaranand Institute, Panjab University. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1972hksh.book.....S" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 3 }, { "name": "Timbuktu / Mali", "start": 1300, "end": 1591, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 5, "output": 8, "composite": 6.6, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": "Timbuktu", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The ulama of Timbuktu (Sankore and the other mosque quarters) and the scholarly lineages that held the qadiship." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "Learning passed through personal teacher-to-student licences in household study circles, with many independent teachers and no single gate; certain families (the Aqit) dominated the judgeship by lineage rather than by a credential.", "sources": [ "Saad, Elias N. (1983). Social History of Timbuktu: The Role of Muslim Scholars and Notables, 1400-1900. Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization. Cambridge University Press.", "Hunwick, John O. (1999). Timbuktu and the Songhay Empire: Al-Sa’di’s Ta’rikh al-sudan down to 1613 and Other Contemporary Documents. Leiden: Brill." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Saad shows the scholars held leadership and authority in the city’s social structure and chose their own teaching and rulings; but they depended on the ruler’s goodwill, as Sunni Ali’s assault on the Sankore scholars in 1468 showed.", "sources": [ "Saad, Elias N. (1983). Social History of Timbuktu: The Role of Muslim Scholars and Notables, 1400-1900. Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization. Cambridge University Press.", "Hunwick, John O. (1999). Timbuktu and the Songhay Empire: Al-Sa’di’s Ta’rikh al-sudan down to 1613 and Other Contemporary Documents. Leiden: Brill." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was real and used: in 1468 Sankore scholars fled to Walata, and scholars moved among Timbuktu, Walata, Djenne, Cairo and the Maghrib.", "sources": [ "Hunwick, John O. (1999). Timbuktu and the Songhay Empire: Al-Sa’di’s Ta’rikh al-sudan down to 1613 and Other Contemporary Documents. Leiden: Brill.", "Saad, Elias N. (1983). Social History of Timbuktu: The Role of Muslim Scholars and Notables, 1400-1900. Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilization. Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 5 }, { "name": "Post-trade W. Africa", "start": 1600, "end": 1900, "axes": { "stability": 2, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 3, "output": 3, "composite": 2.5, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": "Post-trade W. Africa", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Muslim clerical (ulama) class of the Western and Central Sudan, the region’s main literate knowledge-keepers, 1600-1900." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0, "why": "No single gate: clerical learning passed through personal teacher-to-student chains in many independent clerical towns and lineages (for example the Jakhanke of Senegambia).", "sources": [ "Sanneh, Lamin O. (1979). The Jakhanke: The History of an Islamic Clerical People of the Senegambia. London: International African Institute.", "Last, Murray (1967). The Sokoto Caliphate. Ibadan History Series. London: Longmans. https://archive.org/details/sokotocaliphate0000last" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Clerical lineages set their own curriculum and licensed their own students (Sanneh), and in the Sokoto Caliphate after 1804 scholars became the state (Last); but in most states non-scholar rulers controlled office and patronage.", "sources": [ "Sanneh, Lamin O. (1979). The Jakhanke: The History of an Islamic Clerical People of the Senegambia. London: International African Institute.", "Last, Murray (1967). The Sokoto Caliphate. Ibadan History Series. London: Longmans. https://archive.org/details/sokotocaliphate0000last", "Lovejoy, Paul E. (2012). Transformations in Slavery: A History of Slavery in Africa. 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "The region was politically fragmented and the Atlantic and Saharan slave trades kept it in upheaval; clerics moved between polities and founded their own towns, so exit was ordinary.", "sources": [ "Lovejoy, Paul E. (2012). Transformations in Slavery: A History of Slavery in Africa. 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press.", "Sanneh, Lamin O. (1979). The Jakhanke: The History of an Islamic Clerical People of the Senegambia. London: International African Institute." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 10 }, { "name": "Cambodia pre-1975", "start": 1953, "end": 1975, "axes": { "stability": 4, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 3, "output": 2, "composite": 2.6, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state school-and-diploma route (Ministry of National Education schools, French-model baccalaureate, the new state universities) into the civil service and professions (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 4, "why": "Seventeen years of continuous rule under Sihanouk’s Sangkum (1953-70) gave real institutional continuity, but the period ends in the March 1970 coup that deposed him and five years of civil war and US bombing (the Kompong Cham university was destroyed by bombing on 1 May 1970), so the state that ran the schools did not survive a transition intact. Scored between Rome Decline (3) and Athens/Renaissance Italy (5).", "sources": [ "Chandler, David P. (1991). The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bnqh", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "Maddison Project GDP per head was 792 (1953), 1,070 (1960), 1,031 (1970) and 925 (1975), about 4-6% of the US frontier in the same years (16,917-25,956); an agrarian economy near subsistence, falling after 1970. Era-relative this sits with the Dark Ages band.", "sources": [ "Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan Luiten (2025). ‘Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys 39(2): 631-671 (Maddison Project Database 2023; GDP per capita, 2011 int’l $). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; data via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "Chandler, David P. (1991). The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bnqh" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "Sihanouk spent more than 20% of the national budget on a massive school expansion; higher-education enrolment rose from about 200 students (1953) to 5,753 (1970), and by 1975 the country had 5,275 primary schools, 146 secondary schools and 9 higher-education institutions. Real growth, but a very thin carrier stratum for a population of seven to eight million against the modern frontier.", "sources": [ "Ayres, David M. (2000). Anatomy of a Crisis: Education, Development, and the State in Cambodia, 1953-1998. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wr08t", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "No indigenous research system to speak of: a bibliometric census of Cambodian science finds fewer than 23 SCI-Expanded articles in the whole span before 2003, and universities taught mostly in French on imported curricula. Ayres describes the expansion as quantity without planning for staffing or resources.", "sources": [ "Monge-Najera, Julian; Yi, Siyan; Ho, Yuh-Shan (2021). ‘Bibliometrics of Cambodian Science: subjects, researchers and impact in the Science Citation Index Expanded.’ Revista de Biologia Tropical 69(2): 678ff. https://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-77442021000200678", "Ayres, David M. (2000). Anatomy of a Crisis: Education, Development, and the State in Cambodia, 1953-1998. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wr08t" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "State diplomas were the gate into state employment and the expanded universities, but a second gate stayed open: the French baccalaureate and French university degrees, which the colonial and post-colonial system used to sort the best students abroad. One main gate, not a single one.", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "Ayres, David M. (2000). Anatomy of a Crisis: Education, Development, and the State in Cambodia, 1953-1998. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wr08t" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "The educated class did not set its own curriculum or standards: the expansion and the Khmerized curriculum were a political programme of Sihanouk’s Sangkum (‘Buddhist socialism’, loyalty to the monarchy), directed from the palace, and after 1970 by the Lon Nol state. Neither the class nor a party-state-as-class graded itself.", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "Chandler, David P. (1991). The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bnqh" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Exit existed but was narrow and costly: Cambodian baccalaureate holders could enrol in French universities (the future Khmer Rouge leaders studied in Paris), but only wealthy or state-sponsored students had that option; after 1970 the maquis offered a violent alternative.", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "Chandler, David P. (1991). The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bnqh" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Khmer Rouge", "start": 1975, "end": 1979, "axes": { "stability": 1, "surplus": 1, "carriers": 1, "output": 0, "composite": 0.0, "outcome": "Total Collapse", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Angkar (the Communist Party of Kampuchea), which controlled entry into the cadre and office-holding group after schools and scribal credentials were abolished (interpretation call 10)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 1, "why": "The regime’s command structure was continuous but lasted only three years, eight months and twenty days (17 April 1975 to 7 January 1979); it abolished every prior institution rather than carrying any over, devoured its own cadres in successive purges (the Eastern Zone purge of 1978), and ended by foreign invasion. On the rubric’s test (does the institution survive transitions?) it survived none; scored with Post-Mongol Iraq, not with Late Egypt.", "sources": [ "Kiernan, Ben (1996; 3rd ed. 2008). The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Chandler, David P. (1999). Voices from S-21: Terror and History in Pol Pot’s Secret Prison. Berkeley: University of California Press.", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 1, "why": "Money, markets and private property were abolished and the population was driven into forced agricultural labour; mass death by starvation and overwork followed. Kiernan puts deaths at about 1.5 million of 8 million; Heuveline’s demographic reconstruction bounds excess mortality in the 1970s between one and three million. Scored at the calibration floor (Post-Mongol Iraq = 1); no reliable output series exists for 1975-79.", "sources": [ "Kiernan, Ben (1996; 3rd ed. 2008). The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Heuveline, Patrick (1998). ‘’Between One and Three Million’: Towards the Demographic Reconstruction of a Decade of Cambodian History (1970-79).’ Population Studies 52(1): 49-65. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000150176" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 1, "why": "Schools and universities were closed and the educated were selectively killed: about 75% of higher-education lecturers and 96% of university students were lost, and of 21,000 trained secondary teachers in 1975 about 3,000 survived; de Walque shows mortality concentrated in the educated. Clayton documents only rudimentary part-time primary instruction by peasant cadres, which keeps this at the Tasmania level (1) rather than 0.", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "de Walque, Damien (2006). ‘The socio-demographic legacy of the Khmer Rouge period in Cambodia.’ Population Studies 60(2): 223-231. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324720600684767", "Clayton, Thomas (1998). ‘Building the New Cambodia: Educational Destruction and Construction under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-1979.’ History of Education Quarterly 38(1): 1-16. https://www.jstor.org/stable/369662" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 0, "why": "No publication, research or new knowledge; libraries and institutional documents were destroyed (about 90% of educational facilities and their records, per Rany et al.). The only systematic writing was the security apparatus’s own confession files at S-21, which record destruction rather than produce knowledge. The one cell where the 9/12 template’s zero survives the check.", "sources": [ "Chandler, David P. (1999). Voices from S-21: Terror and History in Pol Pot’s Secret Prison. Berkeley: University of California Press.", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "Clayton, Thomas (1998). ‘Building the New Cambodia: Educational Destruction and Construction under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-1979.’ History of Education Quarterly 38(1): 1-16. https://www.jstor.org/stable/369662" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Angkar was the only gate into any position of authority, including teaching: it recruited cadres and teachers from uneducated peasants on the basis of class background and revolutionary standing, and schooling was a disqualification. One gate, held entirely by the party.", "sources": [ "Clayton, Thomas (1998). ‘Building the New Cambodia: Educational Destruction and Construction under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-1979.’ History of Education Quarterly 38(1): 1-16. https://www.jstor.org/stable/369662", "Kiernan, Ben (1996; 3rd ed. 2008). The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Angkar policed its own membership and standards with no outside check: S-21 processed thousands of the party’s own cadres and soldiers, extracting written confessions graded by the party’s security branch. Under interpretation call 6 a party-state that is the gatekeeping class and grades itself counts as self-regulating.", "sources": [ "Chandler, David P. (1999). Voices from S-21: Terror and History in Pol Pot’s Secret Prison. Berkeley: University of California Press.", "Kiernan, Ben (1996; 3rd ed. 2008). The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Borders were sealed by force and flight meant crossing a militarised frontier at risk of death; the rubric’s call 8 names ‘Khmer Rouge sealed borders’ as the example of exit closed by force.", "sources": [ "Kiernan, Ben (1996; 3rd ed. 2008). The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Chandler, David P. (1991). The Tragedy of Cambodian History: Politics, War, and Revolution since 1945. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt32bnqh" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": "Fate not named; clear-cut its own carriers", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, bottom ten no. 1", "plate": "Bottom ten no. 1", "slavery": null }, { "name": "Cambodia post-1979", "start": 1979, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 3, "carriers": 4, "output": 2, "composite": 3.3, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Ministry of Education’s grade-12 national exam (Bac II), the state and private universities, and the CPP-controlled civil service route (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "The ruling party has been continuous since 1979 (PRK/KPRP under Vietnamese occupation to 1989, State of Cambodia, then the CPP; Hun Sen prime minister from 1985 to 2023, succeeded by his son Hun Manet), but the first two decades saw civil war with the Thai-border resistance, the UNTAC interregnum of 1992-93 and the 1997 coup, and the Khmer Rouge insurgency lasted until the late 1990s. Strong party continuity after 1998 set against twenty years of war: Athens/Renaissance Italy level.", "sources": [ "Gottesman, Evan (2003). Cambodia After the Khmer Rouge: Inside the Politics of Nation Building. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Strangio, Sebastian (2014). Hun Sen’s Cambodia. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Human Rights Watch (2017-11-17). ‘Cambodia: Supreme Court Dissolves Democracy.’ https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/17/cambodia-supreme-court-dissolves-democracy" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 3, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from 1,320 (1980) to 3,944 (2022), about 4.5% then 6.7% of the US level (29,611; 58,487); World Bank PPP GDP per head was 8,543 in 2025 against 90,027 for the US. Sustained growth since the late 1990s lifts it one step above the pre-1975 row but it remains far from the frontier.", "sources": [ "Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan Luiten (2025). ‘Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys 39(2): 631-671 (Maddison Project Database 2023; GDP per capita, 2011 int’l $). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; data via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "World Bank, World Development Indicators (accessed 2026-09-26 via api.worldbank.org): SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (Cambodia 2021: 71.9%, UNESCO UIS source), SE.TER.ENRR (Cambodia 2024: 21.4%; USA 2022: 79.4%; Korea 2024: 111.9%), NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD (Cambodia 2025: 8,543; USA 2025: 90,027). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR?locations=KH" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "The carrier base was rebuilt from near zero with Soviet-bloc and Vietnamese help (6,509 students sent abroad 1979-89; 91 higher-education institutions, 57 of them private, by 2012). Adult literacy was 71.9% (2021) and tertiary gross enrolment 21.4% (2024), against 79% in the US and 112% in South Korea (rated 7).", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "World Bank, World Development Indicators (accessed 2026-09-26 via api.worldbank.org): SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (Cambodia 2021: 71.9%, UNESCO UIS source), SE.TER.ENRR (Cambodia 2024: 21.4%; USA 2022: 79.4%; Korea 2024: 111.9%), NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD (Cambodia 2025: 8,543; USA 2025: 90,027). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR?locations=KH", "Ayres, David M. (2000). Anatomy of a Crisis: Education, Development, and the State in Cambodia, 1953-1998. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wr08t" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "A bibliometric census found 3,689 SCI-Expanded publications with a Cambodian address for 1972-2019, concentrated in infectious disease and tropical medicine and dependent on foreign-led collaboration (USA 29%, France 22%, Thailand 21%). Small, derivative and externally driven: Dark Ages band.", "sources": [ "Monge-Najera, Julian; Yi, Siyan; Ho, Yuh-Shan (2021). ‘Bibliometrics of Cambodian Science: subjects, researchers and impact in the Science Citation Index Expanded.’ Revista de Biologia Tropical 69(2): 678ff. https://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-77442021000200678" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The grade-12 national exam is the formal gate to university; when the ministry enforced it with anti-corruption monitors in 2014 the pass rate fell to 25.72% from about 80%. But the gate is shared: private universities outnumber public ones (57 of 91 in 2012), and foreign degrees (Soviet-bloc in the 1980s, Western since) offer a parallel route.", "sources": [ "Radio Free Asia (2014-08-29). ‘More Than 70 Percent of Cambodia’s High School Students Fail Key Exam.’ https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/exam-08292014201054.html", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "In the 1980s the curriculum was set by Vietnamese and Soviet advisers, not the Cambodian class. Since the 1990s the CPP-state runs the ministry and universities with courts and parliament no longer independent (the opposition CNRP was dissolved by the Supreme Court in 2017), which moves it toward call 6; but heavy donor funding and foreign-led research are standing outside checks. Partial.", "sources": [ "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670", "Human Rights Watch (2017-11-17). ‘Cambodia: Supreme Court Dissolves Democracy.’ https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/17/cambodia-supreme-court-dissolves-democracy", "Strangio, Sebastian (2014). Hun Sen’s Cambodia. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit at tolerable cost: study abroad, emigration, NGO and private-sector employers and foreign research partners are all open to Cambodian graduates; most indexed research is done in foreign collaborations.", "sources": [ "Monge-Najera, Julian; Yi, Siyan; Ho, Yuh-Shan (2021). ‘Bibliometrics of Cambodian Science: subjects, researchers and impact in the Science Citation Index Expanded.’ Revista de Biologia Tropical 69(2): 678ff. https://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0034-77442021000200678", "Rany, Sam; Zain, Ahmad Nurulazam Md; Jamil, Hazri (2012). ‘Cambodia’s Higher Education Development in Historical Perspectives (1863-2012).’ International Journal of Learning & Development 2(2): 224-241. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijld.v2i2.1670" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "North Korea", "start": 1953, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 5, "output": 1, "composite": 3.0, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Workers’ Party state’s credential route: songbun-screened admission to Kim Il Sung University and the other universities, the State Academy of Sciences, and party membership (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "The same party-state has ruled since 1948 and passed through two hereditary successions (1994, 2011) and the collapse of its Soviet patron with no coup, civil war or regime break. It stops short of 9 because the state’s administrative core partly failed in the 1990s famine, when the public distribution system collapsed. Repression is not penalised on this axis (interpretation call 2).", "sources": [ "Lankov, Andrei (2013). The Real North Korea: Life and Politics in the Failed Stalinist Utopia. New York: Oxford University Press.", "Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus (2007). Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform. New York: Columbia University Press. https://cup.columbia.edu/book/famine-in-north-korea/9780231140003/", "Cumings, Bruce (2005). Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History, updated ed. New York: W. W. Norton." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "Maddison GDP per head fell from 2,456 (1990) to 1,569 (2022), roughly 3% of the US level in 2022 (58,487); the 1990s famine killed as many as one million people. Early post-war industrial growth (Cumings) lifts the period average only slightly. The Maddison series for North Korea begins in 1990, so the 1953-89 years rest on narrative sources.", "sources": [ "Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan Luiten (2025). ‘Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys 39(2): 631-671 (Maddison Project Database 2023; GDP per capita, 2011 int’l $). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; data via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus (2007). Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform. New York: Columbia University Press. https://cup.columbia.edu/book/famine-in-north-korea/9780231140003/", "Cumings, Bruce (2005). Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History, updated ed. New York: W. W. Norton." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "The 2008 census reports literacy among people aged 10 and over of nearly 100% and school attendance of nearly 100% at ages 5-16 under 11-year compulsory schooling. Density is capped by songbun: university places, above all at Kim Il Sung University, go by family political class, and wavering and hostile families may not attend school in Pyongyang. Mass literacy, rationed higher learning: Kerala/Rome Decline level.", "sources": [ "DPRK Central Bureau of Statistics with UNFPA (2010). 2008 Census of Population of DPRK: Key Findings. https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/jahia-news/documents/news/2010/dprk08_censuskeyfinds.pdf", "Collins, Robert (2012). Marked for Life: Songbun, North Korea’s Social Classification System. Washington, DC: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. https://www.hrnk.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/eng/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1248" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 1, "why": "Hong et al. find only 1,344 domestic and 1,210 internationally co-authored Scopus articles from 1976 to 2024 (more than the book’s 318, but domestic output only passed 200 a year in 2021), against South Korea’s 80-90 thousand a year. Real weapons and cyber capability, but no open novelty output: Post-Mongol Iraq level.", "sources": [ "Hong, Dae Un; An, Eunbin; Kim, Junhyoung; Lim, Jihoo (2025). ‘Scientific research trends of North Korea from 1976 to 2024: a Scopus-based bibliometric study.’ Science Editing 12(2). https://doi.org/10.6087/kcse.381", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1248", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1252" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The book calls all three conditions met (L1248). Every route into higher learning and professional office passes through one state gate screened by songbun, the family political classification that bars the hostile class from university, Pyongyang residence and professional posts.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1248", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1252", "Collins, Robert (2012). Marked for Life: Songbun, North Korea’s Social Classification System. Washington, DC: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. https://www.hrnk.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/eng/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘All three conditions, met at the level of the individual scientist.’ Under interpretation call 6 the party-state is the credential-holding class and grades itself with no independent legislature, courts or press; this replaces the 9/12 template’s 0 (‘state dragon, not scribal dragon’).", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1248", "Lankov, Andrei (2013). The Real North Korea: Life and Politics in the Failed Stalinist Utopia. New York: Oxford University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "No exit: the border is closed by force, internal travel needs permits, and there is ‘no competing patron, and no publication channel that does not pass through the state’s hands’ (L1248). Interpretation call 8 names the North Korean border as the example of exit closed by force.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1248", "Lankov, Andrei (2013). The Real North Korea: Life and Politics in the Failed Stalinist Utopia. New York: Oxford University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": "Ouroboros", "bookFateSource": "earlier plate, bottom ten no. 8", "plate": "Bottom ten no. 8", "slavery": null }, { "name": "South Korea", "start": 1953, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 7, "output": 9, "composite": 8.2, "outcome": "Recovery", "sourceRow": "South Korea 1961-2026", "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state examination route into the universities (the university entrance examinations, the suneung since 1994), the civil-service and bar examinations, and state-licensed professions (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" }, "output": { "value": 9, "why": "", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "stability-scores.csv (working dataset, 2026-09-10)" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘It has an exam monopoly too; the suneung gates university entry as tightly as any imperial keju ever did’ (L1254). Seth documents the state-run entrance examination as the single decisive gate of Korean schooling across the period. Scored 1 because the book states it (call 6); the 9/12 template had 0.5, and foreign doctorates remain a side entrance into the academy.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1254", "Seth, Michael J. (2002). Education Fever: Society, Politics, and the Pursuit of Schooling in South Korea. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The book calls the elite ‘half-closed... the loop never quite seals’ (L1254). Park Chung-hee overrode the scribal class by decree (L1458), and since 1987 the ministry answers to an elected assembly, courts and a free press (call 7). But the licensed professions still police their own numbers: in 2024 residents resigned en masse and medical students took leave to resist the state’s increase of the medical-school quota from 3,058 seats. Partial.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1254", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1458", "Lee, Yuri & Shin, Hyun-Young (2025). ‘Rushed health workforce reform in South Korea: a Kingdon’s multiple streams framework analysis of the 2024 medical school quota expansion.’ Frontiers in Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1673605", "Dyer, Owen (2024). ‘South Korea: Junior doctors’ strike escalates as senior doctors submit mass resignations in support.’ BMJ 384: q768. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q768", "Seth, Michael J. (2002). Education Fever: Society, Politics, and the Pursuit of Schooling in South Korea. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit is wide open: ‘Graduate students scatter across the world and some of them come back’ (L1254); graduates can move to chaebol, foreign firms and foreign universities at tolerable cost.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1254", "Seth, Michael J. (2002). Education Fever: Society, Politics, and the Pursuit of Schooling in South Korea. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 1 }, { "name": "Singapore", "start": 1965, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 7, "output": 7, "composite": 7.9, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state examination pipeline (PSLE, O- and A-Levels) and the Public Service Commission scholarship route into the administrative elite and the national universities." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "The People’s Action Party has governed continuously since 1959, with no coup, civil war or irregular succession; administration, law and the examination system carried over intact across leadership changes. V-Dem RoW codes Singapore an electoral autocracy every year since independence (repressive but continuous; call 2). Unbroken institutional continuity: 9.", "sources": [ "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)", "Lee Kuan Yew (2000). From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000. HarperCollins.", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "Maddison 2023: GDP per head 3,991 in 1965 (about a fifth of the US figure of 21,390), 22,666 in 1990, and above the US by 2010 (58,613 vs 49,267) and 2022 (80,320 vs 58,487), 2011 int.$. It started low and ends well above the frontier; for the period as a whole, 9, level with South Korea.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J. L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. Maddison Project Database 2023 (series via Our World in Data, 2011 int.$). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "Adult literacy rose from 82.9% (1980) to 97.7% (2021), tertiary gross enrollment reached about 97% (2023), and mean years of schooling (13.1 in 2020) is at the US level (13.3). But the population is small (1.9 million in 1965, 5.9 million in 2023) and literacy started lower. Frontier density, small absolute pool: 7, level with South Korea.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators: IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles), IP.PAT.RESD / IP.PAT.NRES (patent applications), SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment), SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy), SP.POP.TOTL. https://data.worldbank.org", "Barro, R. J. & Lee, J.-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics 104:184-198, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001; with Lee & Lee (2016) long-run series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/mean-years-of-schooling-long-run" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "Journal articles rose from 4,812 (2000) to 12,403 (2022), about 2,200 per million people, and total patent filings per head exceed Japan’s (14,590 in 2021 vs Japan’s 289,200 for 23 times the population); but most filings are by non-residents (12,566), with resident filings only 2,024 against Japan’s 222,452. Strong applied and imported output with less frontier novelty than Korea: 7.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators: IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles), IP.PAT.RESD / IP.PAT.NRES (patent applications), SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment), SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy), SP.POP.TOTL. https://data.worldbank.org", "Park, M., Leahey, E. & Funk, R. J. (2023). Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Nature 613:138-144. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The book: ‘the credential is monopolized; the PSLE-to-A-Level pipeline gates everything’, sorting children at 12, 16 and 18 into streams that set their route to university, polytechnic or vocational institute. A single state-held gate: 1.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1466", "Lee Kuan Yew (2000). From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000. HarperCollins." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The government, not the academic establishment, sets the terms (book, L1470); the governing elite is itself recruited from the scholarship pipeline, so the party-state grades its own entrants (call 6). Courts and regular elections are a partial outside check, but press and opposition are constrained (V-Dem RoW: electoral autocracy throughout). ½.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470", "Lee Kuan Yew (2000). From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000. HarperCollins.", "Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M. & Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1). https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214 (V-Dem RoW series via https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "The book: ‘Singaporean talent leaves freely for Silicon Valley, for London, for Shanghai, and some of it comes back’; the state competes to bring its scholars home with market-level salaries. Exit open: 0.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1470", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1468", "Lee Kuan Yew (2000). From Third World to First: The Singapore Story, 1965-2000. HarperCollins." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Soviet Union", "start": 1917, "end": 1991, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 8, "output": 6, "composite": 6.4, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": "Soviet Union", "span": "whole case", "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 1, "score": 3, "datasetFate": "Dragon slain", "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "The party-state and the Academy of Sciences ran continuously for 74 years and successions after 1953 were orderly, but the first four decades brought civil war, the famine of the early 1930s, the Terror (in which scientists such as Vavilov died) and the Second World War, and the period ends in dissolution. Weighted over the whole span: 6, below Post-WWII Germany/Japan (8), above Renaissance Italy (5).", "sources": [ "Graham, L. R. (1993). Science in Russia and the Soviet Union: A Short History. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/Science_in_Russia_and_the_Soviet_Union.html?id=m_wPpj64GqMC", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1954" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "Maddison 2023 USSR GDP per head: 2,184 (1928), 4,529 (1950), 9,658 (1973), 11,336 (1989), against US 11,451, 15,240, 26,602 and 36,756 (2011 int.$): rising from about a fifth to a peak near 36% of the frontier in 1973, then slipping back to about 31%. A large but mid-ranked surplus, much of it absorbed by the state: 6.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J. L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. Maddison Project Database 2023 (series via Our World in Data, 2011 int.$). https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618 ; https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "The likbez campaigns took literacy from about three adults in ten to near-universal (98.5% at the 1959 census for ages 9 to 49), and by the 1980s the Soviet scientific establishment was the largest in the world, with women entering engineering, medicine and science at high rates. Frontier-level carrier density: 8, as Post-WWII.", "sources": [ "Mironov, B. N. (1991). The Development of Literacy in Russia and the USSR from the Tenth to the Twentieth Centuries. History of Education Quarterly 31(2):229-252. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ438434", "Liebowitz, R. D. (1986). Education and Literacy Data in Russian and Soviet Censuses. In R. S. Clem (ed.), Research Guide to the Russian and Soviet Censuses, Cornell University Press, pp. 155-170. https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.7591/9781501707087-011/html", "Graham, L. R. (1993). Science in Russia and the Soviet Union: A Short History. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/Science_in_Russia_and_the_Soviet_Union.html?id=m_wPpj64GqMC", "Lapidus, G. W. (1978). Women in Soviet Society: Equality, Development, and Social Change. University of California Press.", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1374" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "Scored for the period as a whole, weighing the capture dataset’s rising phase (1917 to 1960: nuclear weapons, Sputnik, world-class mathematics and physics) against its stagnation phase (1960 to 1991: Lysenkoism in biology until the mid-1960s, cybernetics long suppressed, weak computing and output outside state priorities), roughly by length (43 and 31 years). About 7 for the first phase and 4 to 5 for the second gives 6, below Post-WWII Germany/Japan and the US (9).", "sources": [ "Graham, L. R. (1993). Science in Russia and the Soviet Union: A Short History. Cambridge University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/Science_in_Russia_and_the_Soviet_Union.html?id=m_wPpj64GqMC", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1256", "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, Soviet Union row (rising 1917 to 1960, stagnation 1960 to 1991)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Soviet Union: “Yes (state academy)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Soviet Union: “Yes (state directed)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" }, "noExit": { "value": 1, "why": "Capture matrix, Soviet Union: “Yes (no exit)”", "sources": [], "pending": null, "provenance": "dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv (capture matrix)" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Modern US 1900-1960", "start": 1900, "end": 1960, "axes": { "stability": 9, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 9, "output": 8, "composite": 8.7, "outcome": "Peak Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The credential route into the professions and the academy: university degrees plus state licensing (medicine, law) and academic tenure." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 9, "why": "One constitution, no coup, no civil war and no invasion across the period; the Depression and two overseas wars were absorbed by courts, Congress and elections without a regime break, and universities, bar and medical licensing ran continuously. Polity5 codes the US at its maximum democracy score throughout. Same score as the US 1945-2000 calibration row.", "sources": [ "Marshall, M.G. & Gurr, T.R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (US series incl. the CSP 2020 update, via Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-polity)", "Goldin, C. & Katz, L.F. (2008). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674035300" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "The US was the per-capita output frontier among large economies; in 1950 its GDP per head was about double the Western European average ($9,561 vs $4,579, 1990 GK$). Held one step below the US 1945-2000 row (10) because 1929-33 was a deep collapse.", "sources": [ "Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD Development Centre (GDP per capita tables, 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars). https://books.google.com/books?id=mWNh6sejLkAC", "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi:10.1111/joes.12618 (Maddison Project Database 2023: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 9, "why": "The ‘high school movement’ of 1910-1940 made the US the first country with mass secondary schooling, a change no other nation matched for decades (Goldin & Katz); on top of that sat the largest university system in the world. Matches the US calibration rows.", "sources": [ "Goldin, C. & Katz, L.F. (2008). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674035300", "Goldin, C. (1998). America’s Graduation from High School: The Evolution and Spread of Secondary Schooling in the Twentieth Century. Journal of Economic History 58(2): 345-374. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/1/2664307/4/Goldin_AmericaGraduation.pdf" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 8, "why": "Industrial research labs (the US led industrial employment of scientists and engineers by the 1920s) and very high patenting, but frontier science stayed in Europe until the 1930s: 44 of the 47 chemistry Nobels before 1945 were for work done in Europe. The lead came after the 1933 emigration, which raised US patenting in émigré fields by 31% (Moser, Voena & Waldinger). One step below US 1945-2000 (9).", "sources": [ "Mowery, D.C. & Rosenberg, N. (1998). Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America. Cambridge University Press (ch. 2, ‘The Institutionalization of Innovation, 1900-90’).", "Withers, N., Robinson, P., Valsler, B. & Walter, P. (2019). The data behind the Nobel prizes. Chemistry World (Royal Society of Chemistry), 7 October 2019. https://www.chemistryworld.com/nobel-prize/the-data-behind-the-nobel-prizes/4010453.article", "Moser, P., Voena, A. & Waldinger, F. (2014). German Jewish Emigres and US Invention. American Economic Review 104(10): 3222-3255. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.10.3222", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1898" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The gate hardened in this period but stayed plural. After the Flexner report (1910) state licensing boards and the MD tied medical practice to accredited schools (Starr), and bar admission was tightened. But hundreds of independent public and private colleges each issued degrees, and most occupations were unlicensed. Follows the dataset’s ‘Partial (UPL for law; tenure)’.", "sources": [ "Starr, P. (1982). The Social Transformation of American Medicine: The Rise of a Sovereign Profession and the Making of a Vast Industry. New York: Basic Books.", "Project calibration: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, row ‘Modern US University’ (Partial / Yes / No)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Professions set their own standards: the AMA over medical schools (Starr), and the AAUP 1915 Declaration and 1940 Statement put tenure decisions in faculty hands. But legislatures and trustees could reach in; loyalty oaths and McCarthy-era dismissals (Schrecker) show outside checks in force. Capped at 1/2 by rubric call 7.", "sources": [ "Starr, P. (1982). The Social Transformation of American Medicine: The Rise of a Sovereign Profession and the Making of a Vast Industry. New York: Basic Books.", "AAUP and Association of American Colleges (1940). 1940 Statement of Principles on Academic Freedom and Tenure (building on the AAUP 1915 Declaration). https://www.aaup.org/reports-publications/aaup-policies-reports/policy-statements/1940-statement-principles-academic", "Schrecker, E.W. (1986). No Ivory Tower: McCarthyism and the Universities. New York: Oxford University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.0, "why": "Exit was open and cheap. A carrier could move between competing universities or to corporate labs (GE, Bell), which by the 1920s were the largest employers of US scientists and engineers (Mowery & Rosenberg). Matches the dataset’s ‘No’ for the modern US university.", "sources": [ "Mowery, D.C. & Rosenberg, N. (1998). Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America. Cambridge University Press (ch. 2, ‘The Institutionalization of Innovation, 1900-90’).", "Project calibration: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, row ‘Modern US University’ (Partial / Yes / No)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Modern US 1960-present", "start": 1960, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 9, "output": 7, "composite": 8.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The credential route into the professions and the academy: accredited degrees, state occupational licensing, tenure." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "The constitutional order ran without a break, but the period includes the 1960s urban riots and assassinations, Watergate and 2020-21. Polity5 kept the US at its maximum score through 2015; the CSP update then put it at +5 (anocracy) in 2020 and +8 in 2021. Weighted across the two calibration rows (9 for 1960-2000, 8 for 2000-2026), rounded down for the late-period erosion.", "sources": [ "Marshall, M.G. & Gurr, T.R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (US series incl. the CSP 2020 update, via Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-polity)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "The US stayed at the per-capita frontier throughout; Western Europe reached about 68% of US GDP per head by 1973 ($11,416 vs $16,689, 1990 GK$). Scored 9 rather than the 1945-2000 row’s 10 because that 10 rests mainly on the 1945-1970 years of unrivalled US output share, most of which fall outside this row. The 2000-2026 row is 9.", "sources": [ "Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD Development Centre (GDP per capita tables, 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars). https://books.google.com/books?id=mWNh6sejLkAC", "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi:10.1111/joes.12618 (Maddison Project Database 2023: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 9, "why": "Near-universal secondary schooling and mass higher education: mean years of schooling among the world’s highest (Barro-Lee), and bachelor’s degrees held by 38.7% of adults, against 4.6% in 1940. Same as both US calibration rows.", "sources": [ "Barro, R.J. & Lee, J.-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics 104: 184-198 (data: http://barrolee.com/).", "Goldin, C. & Katz, L.F. (2008). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674035300", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 2181" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 7, "why": "Weighted across the two calibration rows: frontier output in 1960-2000 (9; the internet, molecular biology, semiconductors) and the saturation-discounted 2000-2026 row (5). Park et al. find papers and patents becoming steadily less disruptive from the 1950s on; Bloom et al. find research productivity falling (Moore’s law now needs over 18 times the researchers of the early 1970s). The book puts the saturation crossing at about the 1970s.", "sources": [ "Park, M., Leahey, E. & Funk, R.J. (2023). Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Nature 613: 138-144. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05543-x", "Bloom, N., Jones, C.I., Van Reenen, J. & Webb, M. (2020). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? American Economic Review 110(4): 1104-1144. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 2145", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 2171" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Credential gates spread. About 29% of US workers needed a government licence by 2008, up from roughly 5% in the 1950s (Kleiner & Krueger), and unauthorized-practice rules protect law. But thousands of competing institutions grant degrees, and much of the economy hires without a licence. Follows the dataset’s ‘Partial’.", "sources": [ "Kleiner, M.M. & Krueger, A.B. (2013). Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market. Journal of Labor Economics 31(S1): S173-S202. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/669060", "Project calibration: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, row ‘Modern US University’ (Partial / Yes / No)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The class sets its own entry standards through peer accreditation, bar and medical boards, and faculty tenure committees, and it inflated its own credential. The project dataset scores this ‘Yes (credential inflation)’. But under rubric call 7 a class answerable to independent courts, legislatures and a free press scores 1/2 at most, so this is held at 1/2. Judgement call; see summary.", "sources": [ "Project calibration: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, row ‘Modern US University’ (Partial / Yes / No).", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 2181", "Kleiner, M.M. & Krueger, A.B. (2013). Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market. Journal of Labor Economics 31(S1): S173-S202. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/669060" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.0, "why": "Exit is wide open: the tech industry, startups and foreign universities all take the knowledge out of the academy at tolerable cost. This is the dataset’s ‘No (tech industry = exit)’.", "sources": [ "Project calibration: dragon-scorecard-dataset.csv, row ‘Modern US University’ (Partial / Yes / No).", "Mowery, D.C. & Rosenberg, N. (1998). Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th-Century America. Cambridge University Press (ch. 2, ‘The Institutionalization of Innovation, 1900-90’)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": 1 }, { "name": "Modern W. Europe 1900-1960", "start": 1900, "end": 1960, "axes": { "stability": 4, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 8, "output": 9, "composite": 6.7, "outcome": "Explosive", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state-sanctioned university and state-examination route into the professions, civil service and academy (Staatsexamen and Habilitation in Germany, agrégation and concours in France, the Oxbridge and Inns of Court route in Britain), judged across the region." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 4, "why": "Scored for the region as a whole: two world wars fought on its soil, occupation of most of the continent in 1940-44, fascist or authoritarian takeovers in Italy, Germany, Spain and Portugal, and the 1933 Nazi purge of the universities. Britain, Switzerland and Sweden held continuous institutions, and the rules were rebuilt after 1945, which lifts the score above Rome in decline (3). See Mazower on how fragile democracy was.", "sources": [ "Mazower, M. (1998). Dark Continent: Europe’s Twentieth Century. London: Allen Lane.", "Marshall, M.G. & Gurr, T.R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (US series incl. the CSP 2020 update, via Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-polity)", "Waldinger, F. (2010). Quality Matters: The Expulsion of Professors and the Consequences for PhD Student Outcomes in Nazi Germany. Journal of Political Economy 118(4): 787-831. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/655976" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "The world’s second-richest bloc after the US and its offshoots, but wars and depression kept it well behind the frontier: in 1950 Western Europe’s GDP per head was $4,579 against $9,561 for the US (1990 GK$), about 48%. Recovery to prewar income levels was fast (Eichengreen).", "sources": [ "Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD Development Centre (GDP per capita tables, 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars). https://books.google.com/books?id=mWNh6sejLkAC", "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi:10.1111/joes.12618 (Maddison Project Database 2023: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023)", "Eichengreen, B. (2007). The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond. Princeton University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rpfs" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "Near-universal adult literacy in the northwest, and the deepest university and academy systems in the world (the German Ordinarien universities, Oxbridge, the French grandes écoles). But secondary and tertiary enrolment was narrower than in the US, and the 1933-41 expulsions removed about 1,500 scholars. Level with the Post-WWII calibration row (8).", "sources": [ "Ringer, F.K. (1969). The Decline of the German Mandarins: The German Academic Community, 1890-1933. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://archive.org/details/declineofgerman00ring", "Goldin, C. & Katz, L.F. (2008). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674035300", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1896" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 9, "why": "Europe was the world centre of frontier science until the 1930s: relativity, quantum mechanics, nuclear fission, and 44 of the 47 pre-1945 chemistry Nobels for work done in Europe. After 1945 it still produced the structure of DNA and early computing. Held at 9 rather than 10 because the 1933-45 purges and the war cut output sharply; the expulsion of professors measurably lowered PhD student outcomes (Waldinger 2010). Output 9 with stability 4 fits the ‘Explosive’ pattern, as Renaissance Italy does.", "sources": [ "Withers, N., Robinson, P., Valsler, B. & Walter, P. (2019). The data behind the Nobel prizes. Chemistry World (Royal Society of Chemistry), 7 October 2019. https://www.chemistryworld.com/nobel-prize/the-data-behind-the-nobel-prizes/4010453.article", "Mokyr, J. (2002). The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9781400829439/the-gifts-of-athena", "Waldinger, F. (2010). Quality Matters: The Expulsion of Professors and the Consequences for PhD Student Outcomes in Nazi Germany. Journal of Political Economy 118(4): 787-831. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/655976", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1892" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Each state ran a tight gate. In Germany the Staatsexamen and Habilitation controlled entry to the professions and the professoriate, and the mandarin class held the key (Ringer). But the gates were plural, a dozen national systems that recognised one another’s scholars, so there was no single gate for the region.", "sources": [ "Ringer, F.K. (1969). The Decline of the German Mandarins: The German Academic Community, 1890-1933. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://archive.org/details/declineofgerman00ring" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Faculties co-opted their own members and set their own standards (the German Ordinarien, the Habilitation), but ministries appointed professors, and in 1933 the state overrode the class completely with the Law for the Restoration of the Professional Civil Service. Partial.", "sources": [ "Ringer, F.K. (1969). The Decline of the German Mandarins: The German Academic Community, 1890-1933. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://archive.org/details/declineofgerman00ring", "Waldinger, F. (2010). Quality Matters: The Expulsion of Professors and the Consequences for PhD Student Outcomes in Nazi Germany. Journal of Political Economy 118(4): 787-831. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/655976", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1892" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.0, "why": "Fragmentation gave real exit. Dismissed German scholars went to Britain (the Academic Assistance Council placed more than 1,000), the US, Turkey and Sweden, and US patenting in their fields rose 31%. Exit was costly for the persecuted and was briefly closed in occupied Europe in 1940-44, but across the period it was 0.", "sources": [ "Moser, P., Voena, A. & Waldinger, F. (2014). German Jewish Emigres and US Invention. American Economic Review 104(10): 3222-3255. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.10.3222", "Reisman, A. (2006). Turkey’s Modernization: Refugees from Nazism and Ataturk’s Vision. Washington, DC: New Academia Publishing. https://www.newacademia.com/books/turkeys-modernization-refugees-from-nazism-and-ataturks-vision/", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1896", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1898" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Modern W. Europe 1960-present", "start": 1960, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 8, "carriers": 8, "output": 6, "composite": 7.4, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "State-accredited university degrees plus the professional chambers and state examinations that license the professions and civil service, judged across the region." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "Continuous democratic institutions in the core, deepened by European integration. Spain, Portugal and Greece moved from dictatorship to democracy in the mid-1970s without civil war, and terrorism (the Troubles, ETA, the Red Brigades) never broke the institutions. Same as the Post-WWII Germany calibration row.", "sources": [ "Judt, T. (2005). Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945. New York: Penguin Press.", "Marshall, M.G. & Gurr, T.R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (US series incl. the CSP 2020 update, via Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-polity)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 8, "why": "High and rising output: Western Europe’s GDP per head reached about 68% of the US level by 1973 ($11,416 vs $16,689, 1990 GK$), then grew more slowly after the 1970s (Eichengreen). The Draghi report attributes the persistent EU-US productivity gap largely to the tech sector. One step below the US and Post-WWII Germany (9) because the regional average includes the poorer south.", "sources": [ "Maddison, A. (2001). The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD Development Centre (GDP per capita tables, 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars). https://books.google.com/books?id=mWNh6sejLkAC", "Eichengreen, B. (2007). The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond. Princeton University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rpfs", "Draghi, M. (2024). The future of European competitiveness: A competitiveness strategy for Europe. European Commission, 9 September 2024. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/competitiveness/draghi-report_en" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 8, "why": "Mass secondary schooling and a large expansion of higher education, harmonised by the 1999 Bologna Declaration (29 countries, a three-cycle bachelor/master/doctorate structure). Mean years of schooling are high but slightly below the US in Barro-Lee. Same as Post-WWII Germany (8).", "sources": [ "Barro, R.J. & Lee, J.-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics 104: 184-198 (data: http://barrolee.com/).", "The Bologna Declaration, Joint Declaration of the European Ministers of Education, 19 June 1999 (29 signatory countries). https://www.magna-charta.org/magna-charta-universitatum/the-bologna-declaration" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 6, "why": "Large, high-quality output (CERN, the World Wide Web in 1989, strong pharmaceuticals and engineering), but under the same Ch 23 saturation discount as the US: disruptiveness is falling across fields and countries (Park et al.). Europe also lags the US at the frontier of commercialised technology: the Draghi report finds EU R&D at 2.11% of GDP in 2022 against 3.59% in the US. Scored one step below the US 1960-present row (7).", "sources": [ "Park, M., Leahey, E. & Funk, R.J. (2023). Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Nature 613: 138-144. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05543-x", "Bloom, N., Jones, C.I., Van Reenen, J. & Webb, M. (2020). Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? American Economic Review 110(4): 1104-1144. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338", "Draghi, M. (2024). The future of European competitiveness: A competitiveness strategy for Europe. European Commission, 9 September 2024. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/competitiveness/draghi-report_en" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Degrees are state-accredited and many professions are licensed through state examinations and self-governing chambers. But the gates are plural and, since Bologna in 1999, mutually recognised across 29 or more countries, so no single gate exists.", "sources": [ "The Bologna Declaration, Joint Declaration of the European Ministers of Education, 19 June 1999 (29 signatory countries). https://www.magna-charta.org/magna-charta-universitatum/the-bologna-declaration", "Eichengreen, B. (2007). The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond. Princeton University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rpfs" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Professional chambers and faculties set standards and co-opt members, but ministries, courts, parliaments and a free press check them routinely, so rubric call 7 caps the score at 1/2. Held at 1/2, not 0, to match the US rows, because entry standards are still set largely by practitioners.", "sources": [ "Judt, T. (2005). Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945. New York: Penguin Press.", "The Bologna Declaration, Joint Declaration of the European Ministers of Education, 19 June 1999 (29 signatory countries). https://www.magna-charta.org/magna-charta-universitatum/the-bologna-declaration" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.0, "why": "Exit is wide open: free movement across the EU, mutual recognition of degrees under Bologna, and industry, foreign and US employers.", "sources": [ "The Bologna Declaration, Joint Declaration of the European Ministers of Education, 19 June 1999 (29 signatory countries). https://www.magna-charta.org/magna-charta-universitatum/the-bologna-declaration", "Draghi, M. (2024). The future of European competitiveness: A competitiveness strategy for Europe. European Commission, 9 September 2024. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/competitiveness/draghi-report_en" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Pahlavi Iran", "start": 1925, "end": 1979, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 5, "carriers": 3, "output": 3, "composite": 3.9, "outcome": "Declining", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "State university and licensing system (Tehran University, Ministry-run higher education, state judiciary); Reza Shah’s reforms took courts and schooling out of clerical hands, so the seminary no longer gated office (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "Continuous modernising state institutions (Tehran University 1935, a secular state judiciary) but two forced breaks: the Anglo-Soviet invasion and abdication of Reza Shah in 1941 and the 1953 coup, before the 1979 revolution ended the regime; comparable to Athens/Renaissance Italy rather than Ottoman 1453-1700.", "sources": [ "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (1982). Iran Between Two Revolutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691101347/iran-between-two-revolutions", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 5, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from $2,742 (1950, 18% of the US) to a peak of $10,665 (1976, 39% of the US); the 1920s to 1940s were much poorer. Much of the rise was oil revenue, which counts as surplus under the rubric. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "Adult literacy was only 36.5% in 1976 and tertiary gross enrollment 4.3% in 1978, far below the modern frontier, though a large foreign-trained cohort existed.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Modern scientific and scholarly output was built almost from nothing after 1935 and stayed small against the frontier; a Scopus-based study finds it had just overtaken South Korea, China and Taiwan by the late 1970s, i.e. still low in absolute and per-carrier terms.", "sources": [ "Roohi, Ehsan (2025). ‘The 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Lost Decade of Science: A Counterfactual Scientometric Analysis.’ arXiv:2510.21826 (preprint, Scopus data 1960-2024). https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21826", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The state university and degree requirements for state office formed a real gate, but not a single one: foreign degrees were a mass parallel route and the Qom seminaries kept their own credential.", "sources": [ "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "No independent legislature, courts or free press checked the academic class (call 7 not triggered), but the class did not set its own curriculum: the monarchy’s ministries and security police controlled universities and appointments.", "sources": [ "Abrahamian, Ervand (1982). Iran Between Two Revolutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691101347/iran-between-two-revolutions", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was open at tolerable cost: study and careers abroad on a mass scale, and a rival domestic institution and patron in the clerical seminary network, which itself led the opposition to the regime.", "sources": [ "Mottahedeh, Roy (1985). The Mantle of the Prophet: Religion and Politics in Iran. New York: Simon and Schuster / Pantheon.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (1982). Iran Between Two Revolutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691101347/iran-between-two-revolutions" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Iran Islamic Republic early", "start": 1979, "end": 1997, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 4, "output": 2, "composite": 3.1, "outcome": "Declining", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Clerical-state gate: the university and civil-service entry system placed under clerical control (Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, ideological screening), within velayat-e faqih where clerics hold office. The seminary did not replace the university; the clerical state governs it (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "Revolution in 1979, the 1980-83 Cultural Revolution closing every university for three years and purging staff and students, and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war; the new clerical institutions then held, which keeps it above collapse rows.", "sources": [ "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "Maddison GDP per head fell from $7,678 (1979, 26% of the US) to $5,249 (1988, 15%) under revolution and war, and was $8,114 (19%) by 1997: the same band as Tunisia’s 12 to 22 percent, scored 4. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "Universities closed 1980-83 and purged, but mass literacy expanded: adult literacy 52.3% (1986), 65.5% (1991), 73.1% (1996); tertiary enrollment reached 17.3% by 1995. Heavy brain drain: about 25% of tertiary-educated Iranians lived in OECD countries c. 1990.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "Carrington, William J. & Detragiache, Enrica (1999). ‘How Extensive Is the Brain Drain?’ Finance & Development 36(2), IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/06/carringt.htm", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "The universities were shut for three years and the lost decade of science followed; indexed journal articles were still only 649 in 1996.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles, source NSF). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC", "Roohi, Ehsan (2025). ‘The 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Lost Decade of Science: A Counterfactual Scientometric Analysis.’ arXiv:2510.21826 (preprint, Scopus data 1960-2024). https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21826", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "After the 1980-83 closure universities reopened under a single state entrance route with political-ideological screening of applicants and staff, directed by the Cultural Revolution Headquarters and later the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution.", "sources": [ "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The clerical state is the credential-holding class and grades itself: it purged faculty, set the Islamised curriculum and vetted candidates, with no independent legislature, court or press to check it (call 6, as for the Soviet class).", "sources": [ "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "No rival institution inside the country, and wartime exit was costly, but emigration stayed possible and was heavy: the IMF estimated more than 15% of tertiary-educated Iranians in the US and about 25% in OECD countries c. 1990.", "sources": [ "Carrington, William J. & Detragiache, Enrica (1999). ‘How Extensive Is the Brain Drain?’ Finance & Development 36(2), IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/06/carringt.htm", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Iran Reform era", "start": 1997, "end": 2005, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 5, "output": 3, "composite": 4.4, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Clerical-state gate: the university and civil-service entry system placed under clerical control (Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, ideological screening), within velayat-e faqih where clerics hold office. The seminary did not replace the university; the clerical state governs it (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "Institutional continuity under the Islamic Republic with peaceful, contested elections (Khatami 1997, 2001), though with the 1999 student protests and the judiciary’s closure of the reformist press; institutions held, like Song or Kerala.", "sources": [ "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from $8,114 (1997, 19% of the US) to $13,110 (2005, 26%): scored 4, level with Tunisia’s band. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "Adult literacy 77% (2002) and 82.4% (2005); tertiary gross enrollment 18.8% (1999) rising to 22.7% (2005), and the book records women’s enrollment reaching sixty-five percent in this era.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1668" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Indexed articles rose eightfold from 861 (1997) to 7,046 (2005), a rapid take-off but still small against the frontier.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles, source NSF). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The single national entrance examination and ideological screening for university and state employment continued unchanged; the reformist government did not dismantle the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution’s control.", "sources": [ "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "A reformist Majlis (2000-04) and a brief press opening were real outside checks, but the Guardian Council and judiciary vetoed legislation and closed papers, so the check only partly worked (call 7: at most 1/2).", "sources": [ "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press.", "Abrahamian, Ervand (2008). A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Emigration continued at high rates (the IMF brain-drain estimate) but meant leaving the country; there was no rival domestic school or patron outside the state system.", "sources": [ "Carrington, William J. & Detragiache, Enrica (1999). ‘How Extensive Is the Brain Drain?’ Finance & Development 36(2), IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/06/carringt.htm", "Keddie, Nikki R. (2003; updated ed. 2006). Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution. New Haven: Yale University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Iran Current era", "start": 2005, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 5, "carriers": 6, "output": 5, "composite": 5.2, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "Clerical-state gate: the university and civil-service entry system placed under clerical control (Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, ideological screening), within velayat-e faqih where clerics hold office. The seminary did not replace the university; the clerical state governs it (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "The regime and its institutions persisted, but with repeated mass unrest (2009 Green Movement, 2022 protests after Mahsa Amini’s death in custody), sanctions and the dismissal of professors after 2022; continuous but under strain.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Iran (Not Free, 11/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2025", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1670", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 5, "why": "Maddison GDP per head $13,110 (2005, 26% of the US), $17,751 (2010, 36%), $18,473 (2022, 32%); flat since 2010 under sanctions. About a third of the frontier, oil revenue included: 5. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 6, "why": "Adult literacy 82-89% (2005-2023); tertiary gross enrollment rose from 22.7% (2005) to a peak of 70.7% (2015), 58.7% in 2022. Offset by a continuing brain drain and exclusions from study for political or Baha’i reasons.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Iran (Not Free, 11/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 5, "why": "Indexed articles rose from 7,046 (2005) to 58,271 (2022), near South Korea’s 71,998 in volume, but about 13% of the US and scored, like US 2000-2026, with the rubric’s volume-over-novelty discount and sanctions-limited collaboration.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles, source NSF). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC", "Roohi, Ehsan (2025). ‘The 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Lost Decade of Science: A Counterfactual Scientometric Analysis.’ arXiv:2510.21826 (preprint, Scopus data 1960-2024). https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21826" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "One state-controlled route into university, profession and state employment, with political screening: students barred from continuing for political reasons or Baha’i faith, and dozens of professors dismissed after 2022 and replaced by regime-aligned faculty.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Iran (Not Free, 11/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2025", "Menashri, David (1992). Education and the Making of Modern Iran. Ithaca: Cornell University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The clerical state holds the credential and polices itself with no working outside check (Freedom House 11/100; legislature, courts and press not independent), so the class self-regulates in the call 6 sense.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Iran (Not Free, 11/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2025", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Emigration remains possible and is used, but it is restricted: many journalists and activists are prevented from leaving, and women generally need a father’s or husband’s permission for a passport; there is no domestic rival institution.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Iran (Not Free, 11/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2025", "Carrington, William J. & Detragiache, Enrica (1999). ‘How Extensive Is the Brain Drain?’ Finance & Development 36(2), IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/06/carringt.htm" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Saudi Arabia pre-2017", "start": 1932, "end": 2017, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 7, "carriers": 4, "output": 3, "composite": 4.9, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "State university and licensing system (Ministry of Education / Higher Education), with the official ulama gating religious and judicial office and a large share of the curriculum; both judged (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "Eighty-five years without a coup or civil war and orderly succession inside the Al Saud, despite King Faisal’s assassination (1975) and the 1979 Grand Mosque seizure; the modern bureaucracy was thin before the 1950s and built as prince-led fiefdoms.", "sources": [ "Vassiliev, Alexei (1998). The History of Saudi Arabia. London: Saqi Books (NYU Press 2000).", "Al-Rasheed, Madawi (2002; 2nd ed. 2010). A History of Saudi Arabia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Hertog, Steffen (2010). Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801458774", "Polity5 Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 7, "why": "Maddison GDP per head went from $3,556 (1950, 23% of the US) to $21,068 (1980, 71%), fell to $12,795 (1988, 36%) and rose to $51,959 (2016, 97%), nearly all of it oil rent; the decades before 1950 were far poorer. For the period as a whole, 7. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023", "Hertog, Steffen (2010). Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801458774" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "Carriers were few for most of the period: tertiary enrollment 2.8% (1971), 28.4% (2000), then 64% (2016); adult literacy 70.8% (1992), 94.4% (2013). Women were the majority of students but largely barred from using degrees in work.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1636" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Indexed articles were about 1,700 a year from 1996 to 2004 and 9,057 in 2016; part of the later rise was bought prestige, with more than 60 highly cited researchers paid to add a Saudi affiliation.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles, source NSF). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC", "Bhattacharjee, Yudhijit (2011). ‘Saudi Universities Offer Cash in Exchange for Academic Prestige.’ Science 334(6061): 1344-1345. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.334.6061.1344" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "State universities and ministries gated professional and state employment, but foreign degrees were a large parallel route (the King Abdullah Scholarship Programme funded some 200,000 students abroad by 2015), and religious and secular credentials ran as two tracks.", "sources": [ "Oxford Business Group (2015). ‘Wider horizons: The King Abdullah Scholarship Programme funds thousands of students to complete their studies abroad.’ The Report: Saudi Arabia 2015. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/reports/saudi-arabia/2015-report/economy/wider-horizons-the-king-abdullah-scholarship-programme-funds-thousands-of-students-to-complete-their-studies-abroad", "Hertog, Steffen (2010). Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801458774", "Al-Rasheed, Madawi (2002; 2nd ed. 2010). A History of Saudi Arabia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "No independent legislature, courts or press checked the class (call 7 not triggered). The ulama largely ran their own religious education and judiciary, but the royal hub, through prince-led bureaucracies, set the rules for the secular university track.", "sources": [ "Hertog, Steffen (2010). Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801458774", "Al-Rasheed, Madawi (2002; 2nd ed. 2010). A History of Saudi Arabia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "Vassiliev, Alexei (1998). The History of Saudi Arabia. London: Saqi Books (NYU Press 2000)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Men could take degrees abroad and to Aramco or foreign employers, but dissenters had no domestic rival patron, and women, the majority of graduates, faced a closed door to the workforce.", "sources": [ "Oxford Business Group (2015). ‘Wider horizons: The King Abdullah Scholarship Programme funds thousands of students to complete their studies abroad.’ The Report: Saudi Arabia 2015. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/reports/saudi-arabia/2015-report/economy/wider-horizons-the-king-abdullah-scholarship-programme-funds-thousands-of-students-to-complete-their-studies-abroad", "Al-Rasheed, Madawi (2002; 2nd ed. 2010). A History of Saudi Arabia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1636" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Saudi Arabia post-2017", "start": 2017, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 7, "output": 4, "composite": 6.5, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 1.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "State university and licensing system, now with religious office also under the royal court after the 2017 arrests of clerics (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "Dynastic and bureaucratic continuity held, but power was sharply recentralised in the crown prince: mass arrests of clerics and intellectuals from 10 September 2017, and the November 2017 detention of princes, officials and businessmen in a Riyadh hotel.", "sources": [ "Human Rights Watch (2018). World Report 2018: Saudi Arabia. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/saudi-arabia", "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Saudi Arabia (Not Free, 9/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/saudi-arabia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "Maddison GDP per head $50,593 (2017, 93% of the US) and $53,517 (2022, 92%), oil rent included: level with the high-income calibration rows at 9. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update.’ Journal of Economic Surveys; Maddison Project Database 2023 (GDP per capita, 2011$). https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023", "Hertog, Steffen (2010). Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and the State in Saudi Arabia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. https://doi.org/10.7591/9780801458774" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "Tertiary gross enrollment 70.7% (2017) rising to 83.9% (2024); adult literacy 95.3% (2017) to 97.9% (2024), now near the frontier, with women admitted to more professions.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.TER.ENRR (tertiary gross enrollment ratio, source UNESCO UIS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "World Bank, World Development Indicators, SE.ADT.LITR.ZS (adult literacy, source UNESCO Institute for Statistics). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Saudi Arabia (Not Free, 9/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/saudi-arabia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "Indexed articles rose from 9,764 (2017) to 24,595 (2023), fast growth from a small base; discounted for the documented purchase of affiliations and for rubric saturation.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators, IP.JRN.ARTC.SC (scientific and technical journal articles, source NSF). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC", "Bhattacharjee, Yudhijit (2011). ‘Saudi Universities Offer Cash in Exchange for Academic Prestige.’ Science 334(6061): 1344-1345. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.334.6061.1344" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "State universities and ministries remain the gate to professional and state employment, but foreign degrees remain a recognised parallel route.", "sources": [ "Oxford Business Group (2015). ‘Wider horizons: The King Abdullah Scholarship Programme funds thousands of students to complete their studies abroad.’ The Report: Saudi Arabia 2015. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/reports/saudi-arabia/2015-report/economy/wider-horizons-the-king-abdullah-scholarship-programme-funds-thousands-of-students-to-complete-their-studies-abroad", "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Saudi Arabia (Not Free, 9/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/saudi-arabia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "No outside check exists (academic freedom 1 of 4, extensive political indoctrination), but the class no longer sets its own curriculum: the court disciplined the clerical establishment by arrest in 2017 and directs the universities. Scored 1/2 as for the pre-2017 row.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Saudi Arabia (Not Free, 9/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/saudi-arabia/freedom-world/2025", "Human Rights Watch (2018). World Report 2018: Saudi Arabia. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/saudi-arabia" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Exit is legally possible and eased for women (passports, employment), but costly for dissenters: activists were arrested and tortured in 2018, and the 2018 killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul showed that even exile abroad is not safe.", "sources": [ "Human Rights Watch (2019). World Report 2019: Saudi Arabia. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/saudi-arabia", "Freedom House (2025). Freedom in the World 2025: Saudi Arabia (Not Free, 9/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/saudi-arabia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Afghanistan pre-1996", "start": 1960, "end": 1996, "axes": { "stability": 2, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 2, "output": 1, "composite": 1.7, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state school and university system and the civil-service route (Kabul University and state schools under the monarchy and Daoud; PDPA party-state education 1978-92). The rural madrasa and ulama networks are treated as a rival gate." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 2, "why": "Weighting: the rubric asks whether the institutions survive transitions, so the period is scored on its whole run, not its best decade. The 1964 constitutional monarchy (1964-73) was fairly stable. Then came Daoud’s 1973 coup, the April 1978 Saur coup and PDPA purges, the Soviet invasion and war (1979-89), the fall of Najibullah in 1992, and the 1992-96 civil war that destroyed Kabul. That is about 18 of 36 years of war and two complete breaks of the state. Polity5 codes 1980-89 as foreign interruption and 1992-95 as interregnum. A straight time-weighted average would give about 3; the collapse at the end pulls it to 2, next to Dark Ages W. Europe.", "sources": [ "Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300095197/the-fragmentation-of-afghanistan/", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "Maddison GDP per head was 1,326 (2011 int$) in 1960, about 7% of the US (18,057). It fell to 963 in 1990 and 633 in 1995, under 2% of the US. That is era-relative near-subsistence, at the Dark Ages level.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 2, "why": "Adult literacy was 18.2% in the 1979 census year. Tertiary gross enrollment was 0.8-2.2% between 1970 and 1990. From 1979 over six million refugees fled to Pakistan and Iran, stripping the small educated stratum further.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "UNHCR. 2001. Refugees Magazine Issue 108, ‘Afghanistan: the unending crisis, The biggest caseload in the world’. https://www.unhcr.org/publications/refugees-magazine-issue-108-afghanistan-unending-crisis-biggest-caseload-world" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 1, "why": "There is no measurable research output. Tertiary enrollment never passed 2.2%. V-Dem’s academic freedom index peaked at 0.39 in 1970 and sat at 0.09-0.15 from 1975 to 1995. The university and the state collapsed in the 1992-96 fighting.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The state’s school-to-university-to-bureaucracy pipeline was the gate into the modern educated elite. Rubin shows how this state-funded education produced both the PDPA and the Islamist cadres. But the state barely reached the countryside, where madrasas certified religious authority. After 1978 rival gates appeared: Soviet scholarships on one side, Pakistani refugee-camp madrasas on the other.", "sources": [ "Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300095197/the-fragmentation-of-afghanistan/", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Before 1978 the royal government and then Daoud controlled the university, not the educated class. From 1978 to 1992 the PDPA party-state set curricula and graded itself with no outside check (interpretation call 6). From 1992 to 1996 no functioning class existed. Weighted across the period: partial.", "sources": [ "Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300095197/the-fragmentation-of-afghanistan/", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was wide open. By the late 1980s more than six million Afghans were refugees in Pakistan and Iran, and rival patrons (the Soviet Union, Pakistan, Iran, the mujahidin parties) all recruited the educated.", "sources": [ "UNHCR. 2001. Refugees Magazine Issue 108, ‘Afghanistan: the unending crisis, The biggest caseload in the world’. https://www.unhcr.org/publications/refugees-magazine-issue-108-afghanistan-unending-crisis-biggest-caseload-world", "Rubin, Barnett R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300095197/the-fragmentation-of-afghanistan/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Afghanistan Taliban I", "start": 1996, "end": 2001, "axes": { "stability": 2, "surplus": 1, "carriers": 1, "output": 1, "composite": 1.2, "outcome": "Total Collapse", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Taliban clerical leadership and its madrasa-trained mullahs (Kandahar shura under Mullah Omar), which gated office and decided who could be educated (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 2, "why": "The Taliban took Kabul in September 1996 and ruled by decree from Kandahar with no constitution. They fought the Northern Alliance for the north throughout and were removed by the US-led invasion in 2001 after five years. Polity5 gives a durable count of only 0-4 years. This is a war-torn period, near the Dark Ages rows.", "sources": [ "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 1, "why": "Maddison GDP per head was 633 in 1995 and 502 in 2000 (2011 int$), about 1.1% of the US (45,886 in 2000). The economy was one of drought, war and the opium trade. Floor level, as for Post-Mongol Iraq.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 1, "why": "Girls were banned from school and women from almost all employment. By 2001 only about 1 million children were enrolled, almost none of them girls. Tasmania/Post-Mongol floor.", "sources": [ "UNESCO. 2021. The right to education: what’s at stake in Afghanistan? A 20-year review. Paris: UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000378911", "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1622-1626" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 1, "why": "Television, music and most secular publishing were banned. V-Dem’s academic freedom index was 0.065 in 1998-2000, and there is no measurable research output.", "sources": [ "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "Office and the right to teach were held by the Taliban’s madrasa-trained clergy, most of them from Deobandi madrasas in Pakistan. They also decided who could be educated at all: girls were barred outright.", "sources": [ "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The clerical leadership set the curriculum and enforced its own standards through the religious police. There was no legislature, no independent court and no free press. V-Dem academic freedom was 0.065.", "sources": [ "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Exit existed but was costly. Several million refugees were still in Pakistan and Iran, and the Northern Alliance held a rival enclave in the north-east. For women, movement without a male relative was closed by edict.", "sources": [ "Rashid, Ahmed. 2000. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press (first published London: I.B. Tauris, 2000). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban:_Militant_Islam,_Oil_and_Fundamentalism_in_Central_Asia", "UNHCR. 2001. Refugees Magazine Issue 108, ‘Afghanistan: the unending crisis, The biggest caseload in the world’. https://www.unhcr.org/publications/refugees-magazine-issue-108-afghanistan-unending-crisis-biggest-caseload-world" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Afghanistan post-2001", "start": 2001, "end": 2021, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 2, "carriers": 3, "output": 2, "composite": 2.4, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0, "noExit": 0, "score": 0.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state credential route: the Ministry of Higher Education, public and private universities, and civil-service appointment." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "The Bonn process and the 2004 constitution brought elections, but the Taliban insurgency ran the whole period. Polity5 codes 2002-13 as foreign interruption and gives polity2 -1 after that. The state collapsed in August 2021 when the Taliban returned. Scored level with Rome Decline.", "sources": [ "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 2, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from 964 (2005) to 2,032 (2019) in 2011 int$, still only 2-4% of the US (49,655 to 56,469). Growth was largely aid-driven.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "World Bank. October 2022. Afghanistan Development Update: Adjusting to the New Realities; and World Bank Afghanistan Development Update April 2024 (2021 contraction 20.7%, 2022 contraction 6.2%). https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/18a1ccff0457effb0a456c0d4af7cce2-0310012024/original/Afghanistan-Development-Update-April-2024.pdf" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 3, "why": "School enrollment rose ten-fold, from 1 million in 2001 to 10 million in 2018. The share of girls rose from almost 0 to about 4 in 10, with 3.6 million girls in school. Adult literacy was 31.5% (2011) and 37.3% (2021). Tertiary enrollment rose from 1.4% (2003) to 10.9% (2020). Real but low against the frontier.", "sources": [ "UNESCO. 2021. The right to education: what’s at stake in Afghanistan? A 20-year review. Paris: UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000378911", "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1622-1626" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 2, "why": "Indexed scientific and technical articles rose from 6 (2002) to 140 (2020). That is growth from nothing but still tiny per head: about 0.004 per 1,000 people, against about 1.3 in the US.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Scientific and technical journal articles (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), from National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "State universities and the ministry controlled the main route into the professions and civil service. But private universities multiplied, and donor-funded foreign scholarships and NGO employment offered parallel routes.", "sources": [ "UNESCO. 2021. The right to education: what’s at stake in Afghanistan? A 20-year review. Paris: UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000378911", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0, "why": "The academic class did not set its own rules. The ministry and donors shaped curricula. An elected parliament, courts and a lively independent press were outside checks, and V-Dem academic freedom was about 0.52 through 2005-2020 (interpretation call 7).", "sources": [ "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index", "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit was open: emigration, foreign scholarships, NGOs and international employers.", "sources": [ "Barfield, Thomas. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691154411/afghanistan", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Afghanistan Taliban II", "start": 2021, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 3, "surplus": 1, "carriers": 2, "output": 1, "composite": 1.6, "outcome": "Collapsed", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Taliban clerical leadership (the Amir, the cabinet and the clerically staffed Ministry of Higher Education), which decides who may study, teach and hold office (interpretation call 9)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 3, "why": "Since August 2021 the Taliban have held the whole country without a major civil war and rule by decree. Russia recognised them in July 2025. But the previous state’s institutions were swept away in 2021: the transition was not survived. Governance runs on edicts without a constitution.", "sources": [ "International Crisis Group, July 2025, ‘Russia Becomes First State to Recognise Taliban as Rightful Afghan Government’. https://www.crisisgroup.org/alr/asia-pacific/afghanistan/russia-becomes-first-state-recognise-taliban-rightful-afghan-government", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Afghanistan (Not Free, 6/100; D3 0/4, G1 0/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/afghanistan/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 1, "why": "The World Bank records real GDP contractions of 20.7% in 2021 and 6.2% in 2022. Maddison GDP per head was 1,358 (2011 int$) in 2022, 2.3% of the US (58,487). Floor level.", "sources": [ "World Bank. October 2022. Afghanistan Development Update: Adjusting to the New Realities; and World Bank Afghanistan Development Update April 2024 (2021 contraction 20.7%, 2022 contraction 6.2%). https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/18a1ccff0457effb0a456c0d4af7cce2-0310012024/original/Afghanistan-Development-Update-April-2024.pdf", "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 2, "why": "Girls were barred from school beyond grade six from 2021 (the March 2022 reopening was reversed on the day). Women were barred from public and private universities by the Higher Education Ministry letter of 20 December 2022, affecting over 100,000 students. UNESCO counted at least 1.4 million girls deliberately denied secondary school by 2024, and 2.4 million in 2026. University enrollment has more than halved since 2021, and primary enrollment fell from 6.8 million (2019) to 5.7 million (2022). The 2 rather than 1 reflects the literate stock left from 2001-21 (adult literacy 37.3% in 2021), which the book calls carriers ‘created and then chained’.", "sources": [ "CNN, 20 Dec 2022, ‘Taliban suspend university education for women in Afghanistan’. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/asia/taliban-bans-women-university-education-intl/index.html", "UNESCO. Protecting the right to education for all Afghans (emergency education page). https://www.unesco.org/en/emergencies/education/afghanistan", "UN News / UNESCO. 15 Aug 2024. ‘Afghanistan: 20 years of steady education progress almost wiped out’. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153191", "Al Jazeera, 11 Aug 2026, ‘UNESCO says 2.4 million Afghan girls denied access to further education’ (reporting UNESCO figures). https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/11/unesco-says-2-4-million-afghan-girls-denied-access-to-further-education", "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1622-1626" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 1, "why": "Freedom House scores academic freedom 0/4 and media 0/4, and V-Dem academic freedom fell to 0.086-0.111 in 2022-25. The 2024 decrees also barred women from midwifery and nursing education. Floor level.", "sources": [ "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Afghanistan (Not Free, 6/100; D3 0/4, G1 0/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/afghanistan/freedom-world/2025", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "The clerical leadership holds the gate outright. The university ban was decided in cabinet and issued as a ministry letter effective immediately. The Higher Education Minister justified it on religious grounds, citing gender mixing and un-Islamic subjects.", "sources": [ "CNN, 20 Dec 2022, ‘Taliban suspend university education for women in Afghanistan’. https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/20/asia/taliban-bans-women-university-education-intl/index.html", "PBS NewsHour, Dec 2022, ‘Taliban’s higher education minister defends ban on women from universities’. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/talibans-higher-education-minister-defends-ban-on-women-from-universities" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "There is no legislature, independent judiciary or free press to check the clerical class. Freedom House scores academic freedom 0/4 and total freedom 6/100, and V-Dem academic freedom is 0.09.", "sources": [ "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Afghanistan (Not Free, 6/100; D3 0/4, G1 0/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/afghanistan/freedom-world/2025", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Split by sex. For women, exit is closed by edict: the 2024 public-morality decree further restricts women’s movement, and Freedom House scores freedom of movement 0/4. The book describes carriers ‘held inside [a wall] under guard’. Men can still emigrate to Pakistan and Iran at high cost.", "sources": [ "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Afghanistan (Not Free, 6/100; D3 0/4, G1 0/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/afghanistan/freedom-world/2025", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1622-1626" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Turkey Ataturk era", "start": 1923, "end": 1960, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 4, "output": 4, "composite": 4.4, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1.0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state university and civil-service route into the educated, office-holding class: the Darulfunun, reconstituted as Istanbul University in 1933, and the Ankara faculties, under the Ministry of Education and the one-party (CHP) state until 1946." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "The Republic’s institutions, founded in 1923, held for the whole period despite the 1925 Sheikh Said revolt and later Kurdish uprisings, and they carried through a peaceful move to multi-party rule in 1945-50 (Zurcher ch. 12). The period ends in the military coup of 27 May 1960. Rubric call 2 rewards continuity, not liberty, but the rules themselves were rewritten wholesale in the 1920s (caliphate, civil code, alphabet), so the score stays mid-range.", "sources": [ "Zurcher, E.J. (2017). Turkey: A Modern History, 4th ed. London: I.B. Tauris (1st ed. 1993); ch. 12 ‘The Transition to Democracy, 1945-50’.", "Lewis, B. (1961; 3rd ed. 2002). The Emergence of Modern Turkey. London/New York: Oxford University Press (Royal Institute of International Affairs). https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-emergence-of-modern-turkey-9780195134605", "Marshall, M.G. & Gurr, T.R. (2020). Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5manualv2018.pdf (US series incl. the CSP 2020 update, via Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-polity)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "A poor, mostly agrarian economy recovering from a decade of war, with incomes far below Western Europe and the US throughout; statist industrialisation came in the 1930s (Pamuk). Maddison and Pamuk’s series put Turkish GDP per head at a small fraction of the frontier.", "sources": [ "Pamuk, S. (2018). Uneven Centuries: Economic Development of Turkey since 1820. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9780691184982/uneven-centuries", "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi:10.1111/joes.12618 (Maddison Project Database 2023: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "Literacy was under 10% in 1927. The 1928 Latin alphabet and the Public Instruction Centers raised it rapidly toward a majority within about three decades, and the 1933 reform created Istanbul University. Still far below the European and US frontier of near-universal literacy.", "sources": [ "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1860", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1864", "Lewis, B. (1961; 3rd ed. 2002). The Emergence of Modern Turkey. London/New York: Oxford University Press (Royal Institute of International Affairs). https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-emergence-of-modern-turkey-9780195134605", "Zurcher, E.J. (2017). Turkey: A Modern History, 4th ed. London: I.B. Tauris (1st ed. 1993); ch. 12 ‘The Transition to Democracy, 1945-50’." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "Output centred on building modern institutions and on translation, not on new knowledge. Émigré German professors staffed the new Istanbul University after 1933 (Reisman). The 1928 script change cut new readers off from six centuries of Ottoman writing, so the old corpus became unreadable to them.", "sources": [ "Reisman, A. (2006). Turkey’s Modernization: Refugees from Nazism and Ataturk’s Vision. Washington, DC: New Academia Publishing. https://www.newacademia.com/books/turkeys-modernization-refugees-from-nazism-and-ataturks-vision/", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1862", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1864", "Lewis, B. (1961; 3rd ed. 2002). The Emergence of Modern Turkey. London/New York: Oxford University Press (Royal Institute of International Affairs). https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-emergence-of-modern-turkey-9780195134605" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1.0, "why": "One gate. Every domestic university was a state institution; after 1933 the university was under heavy state control (Findikli), and office and the professions ran through state degrees. Under rubric call 6, the Kemalist party-state bureaucracy counts as the credential-holding class holding the key.", "sources": [ "Findikli, B. (2022; online 2021). Between Autonomy and Central Control: A Tale of Two University Reforms in Turkey During the Single-Party Era. Higher Education Policy. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41307-021-00236-y", "Lewis, B. (1961; 3rd ed. 2002). The Emergence of Modern Turkey. London/New York: Oxford University Press (Royal Institute of International Affairs). https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-emergence-of-modern-turkey-9780195134605", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1402" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "In 1923-46 the party-state graded itself with no outside check, which call 6 scores as 1. It closed the Darulfunun in 1933 and dismissed much of its faculty, while the academy itself had no say. Law 4936 of 1946 then gave universities self-government, with rectors elected by faculty, while a multi-party parliament and press added outside checks, which call 7 caps at 1/2. The period average is scored 1/2.", "sources": [ "Findikli, B. (2022; online 2021). Between Autonomy and Central Control: A Tale of Two University Reforms in Turkey During the Single-Party Era. Higher Education Policy. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41307-021-00236-y", "Zurcher, E.J. (2017). Turkey: A Modern History, 4th ed. London: I.B. Tauris (1st ed. 1993); ch. 12 ‘The Transition to Democracy, 1945-50’." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "There was no rival domestic institution, since all universities were state-run. Emigration and foreign study were legally possible but narrow and costly for a poor country, so exit was partial.", "sources": [ "Findikli, B. (2022; online 2021). Between Autonomy and Central Control: A Tale of Two University Reforms in Turkey During the Single-Party Era. Higher Education Policy. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41307-021-00236-y", "Lewis, B. (1961; 3rd ed. 2002). The Emergence of Modern Turkey. London/New York: Oxford University Press (Royal Institute of International Affairs). https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-emergence-of-modern-turkey-9780195134605" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Turkey Erdogan era", "start": 2002, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 5, "surplus": 6, "carriers": 7, "output": 4, "composite": 5.4, "outcome": "Compounding", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1.0, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The Council of Higher Education (YOK), which controls every state and foundation university, together with presidential appointment of rectors and state licensing of the professions." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 5, "why": "One party ruled throughout, but the rules themselves were remade. The period includes the July 2016 coup attempt, emergency-decree rule, and the 2017 referendum that centralised power in the presidency. Freedom House downgraded Turkey to ‘Not Free’ in 2018 after the largest decade-long decline it recorded anywhere, and V-Dem classes Turkey an electoral autocracy from 2013. Mass purges of the civil service and universities broke administrative continuity.", "sources": [ "Freedom House (2018). Freedom in the World 2018: Turkey. https://freedomhouse.org/country/turkey/freedom-world/2018", "V-Dem Institute (2025). Democracy Report 2025: 25 Years of Autocratization (Turkey classed an electoral autocracy since 2013). https://www.v-dem.net/documents/60/V-dem-dr__2025_lowres.pdf", "Zurcher, E.J. (2017). Turkey: A Modern History, 4th ed. London: I.B. Tauris (1st ed. 1993); ch. 12 ‘The Transition to Democracy, 1945-50’." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 6, "why": "An upper-middle to high-income economy with GDP per head about half the US level in PPP terms by the mid-2020s (WDI), after strong growth in the 2000s. That is well behind the Western European and US frontier.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators: GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD), Turkiye and United States. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=TR", "Pamuk, S. (2018). Uneven Centuries: Economic Development of Turkey since 1820. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/9780691184982/uneven-centuries", "Bolt, J. & van Zanden, J.L. (2024). Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi:10.1111/joes.12618 (Maddison Project Database 2023: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2023)" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 7, "why": "Mass higher education. Gross tertiary enrolment reached about 95% by 2015 (WDI), and the number of universities more than doubled under the ‘one university in every province’ policy. Scored below the frontier (8-9) because mean schooling is lower (Barro-Lee) and the 2016-17 purges removed thousands of academics.", "sources": [ "World Bank, World Development Indicators: School enrollment, tertiary (% gross), Turkiye (SE.TER.ENRR). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR?locations=TR", "‘Turkey’s higher education boom: the “one university in every city” policy in small cities’, Turkish Studies 26(5) (2025). doi:10.1080/14683849.2024.2425314", "Barro, R.J. & Lee, J.-W. (2013). A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010. Journal of Development Economics 104: 184-198 (data: http://barrolee.com/)." ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 4, "why": "Publication volume grew fast, but the Ch 23 saturation discount applies, and on top of it academic freedom collapsed. Turkey sits near the bottom of the V-Dem Academic Freedom Index after 2016, and more than 7,500 university staff were dismissed by decree. The book reads this era as ‘testing the gate hinge by hinge’. One step below US 2000-2026 (5).", "sources": [ "Kinzelbach, K., Lindberg, S.I. & Lott, L. (2024). Academic Freedom Index 2024 Update. FAU Erlangen-Nurnberg and V-Dem Institute. https://academic-freedom-index.net/research/Academic_Freedom_Index_Update_2024.pdf", "Scholars at Risk (2016). ‘1,267 Academics dismissed, 68 students abroad expelled, says Turkey decree’, 1 Nov 2016, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2016/11/1267-academics-dismissed-68-students-abroad-expelled-says-turkey-decree/ ; Scholars at Risk (2019). ‘SAR calls for action to counter mass targeting of higher education communities in Turkey’, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2019/07/sar-calls-for-action-to-counter-mass-targeting-of-higher-education-communities-in-turkey/", "Park, M., Leahey, E. & Funk, R.J. (2023). Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time. Nature 613: 138-144. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05543-x", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), line 1404" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1.0, "why": "One gate. YOK accredits all state and private (foundation) universities, and after the 2016 emergency decree the president appointed every rector from YOK’s shortlists, abolishing faculty elections (Celik; Balkan Insight on the 2024 Constitutional Court ruling). The executive holds the key.", "sources": [ "Celik, N. (2023). The AKP-Era Higher Education Strategies for Establishing Hegemony over Turkish Universities. International Journal of Middle East Studies 55(3): 520-527. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-middle-east-studies/article/akpera-higher-education-strategies-for-establishing-hegemony-over-turkish-universities/EB6EECDBEF3F2286A4050E807999B739", "Balkan Insight (4 June 2024). ‘Turkish Court Strikes Down Decree Allowing President to Appoint Rectors’. https://balkaninsight.com/2024/06/04/turkish-court-strikes-down-decree-allowing-president-to-appoint-rectors/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The academy no longer polices itself: rectors are appointed and dissenters purged, including the Academics for Peace signatories. But the controlling class is the executive, not the scholars, and some outside checks survive: the Constitutional Court struck down the 2016 rector-appointment decree in 2024, and elections remain competitive. Rubric call 6 does not apply in full, so 1/2.", "sources": [ "Celik, N. (2023). The AKP-Era Higher Education Strategies for Establishing Hegemony over Turkish Universities. International Journal of Middle East Studies 55(3): 520-527. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-middle-east-studies/article/akpera-higher-education-strategies-for-establishing-hegemony-over-turkish-universities/EB6EECDBEF3F2286A4050E807999B739", "Scholars at Risk (2016). ‘1,267 Academics dismissed, 68 students abroad expelled, says Turkey decree’, 1 Nov 2016, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2016/11/1267-academics-dismissed-68-students-abroad-expelled-says-turkey-decree/ ; Scholars at Risk (2019). ‘SAR calls for action to counter mass targeting of higher education communities in Turkey’, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2019/07/sar-calls-for-action-to-counter-mass-targeting-of-higher-education-communities-in-turkey/", "Balkan Insight (4 June 2024). ‘Turkish Court Strikes Down Decree Allowing President to Appoint Rectors’. https://balkaninsight.com/2024/06/04/turkish-court-strikes-down-decree-allowing-president-to-appoint-rectors/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Exit exists and is heavily used, through emigration and brain drain. For the targeted class it was closed by force: nearly 6,000 scholars and their spouses had their passports cancelled, and dismissed academics received lifetime bans from public service (Scholars at Risk). Partial.", "sources": [ "Scholars at Risk (2016). ‘1,267 Academics dismissed, 68 students abroad expelled, says Turkey decree’, 1 Nov 2016, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2016/11/1267-academics-dismissed-68-students-abroad-expelled-says-turkey-decree/ ; Scholars at Risk (2019). ‘SAR calls for action to counter mass targeting of higher education communities in Turkey’, https://www.scholarsatrisk.org/2019/07/sar-calls-for-action-to-counter-mass-targeting-of-higher-education-communities-in-turkey/", "Celik, N. (2023). The AKP-Era Higher Education Strategies for Establishing Hegemony over Turkish Universities. International Journal of Middle East Studies 55(3): 520-527. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-journal-of-middle-east-studies/article/akpera-higher-education-strategies-for-establishing-hegemony-over-turkish-universities/EB6EECDBEF3F2286A4050E807999B739" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Tunisia", "start": 1956, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 6, "surplus": 4, "carriers": 5, "output": 3, "composite": 4.4, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state university system and civil-service recruitment under the Ministry of Higher Education (party-state-controlled until 2011)." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 6, "why": "Bourguiba ruled from 1956 to 1987. Ben Ali removed him constitutionally on 7 November 1987 and ruled until the revolution of January 2011. The 2014 constitution followed, and then Saied’s 2021 dismissal of the legislature and the 2022 constitution. There were several regime breaks but no civil war, and the administration and schools carried over each time. Polity5 durable reached 35 years by 1992. Comparable to Song and Kerala: pressure, institutions held.", "sources": [ "Perkins, Kenneth. 2014. A History of Modern Tunisia, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/history-of-modern-tunisia/094FCF8C92AE2E11A0C41521BD452755", "Willis, Michael J. 2012. Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring. London: Hurst / New York: Columbia University Press. https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/politics-and-power-in-the-maghreb-2/", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Tunisia (Partly Free, 44/100; D1 1/4, D3 3/4, F1 1/4, G1 3/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 4, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from 2,141 (1960, 12% of US) to 10,722 (2010, 22%) and 10,914 (2022, 19%) in 2011 int$. Middle-income, well below the frontier.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "Bourguiba’s post-1956 mass schooling raised adult literacy from 48.2% (1984) to 86.2% (2023). Tertiary enrollment rose from 2.3% (1971) to about 36% (2010) and 38.1% (2023). Strong for the region but below the frontier for the period as a whole.", "sources": [ "Perkins, Kenneth. 2014. A History of Modern Tunisia, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/history-of-modern-tunisia/094FCF8C92AE2E11A0C41521BD452755", "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Indexed articles rose from 980 (2002) to 5,493 (2023), about 0.45 per 1,000 people, roughly a third of the US rate. Output is mostly incremental, with little patenting.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Scientific and technical journal articles (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), from National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "The state built and owns the main credential route: national schools and universities from the Bourguiba-era reforms, feeding the civil service. But French and other foreign degrees are an alternative gate into the professions, and the key is held by the ministry and ruling party rather than the class itself.", "sources": [ "Perkins, Kenneth. 2014. A History of Modern Tunisia, 2nd ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/history-of-modern-tunisia/094FCF8C92AE2E11A0C41521BD452755", "Willis, Michael J. 2012. Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring. London: Hurst / New York: Columbia University Press. https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/politics-and-power-in-the-maghreb-2/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "From 1956 to 2011 the Destourian party-state (Neo-Destour/PSD, then RCD) controlled universities, with V-Dem academic freedom of 0.28-0.31 (partial under call 6). From 2011 to 2021 an independent legislature and free press checked it (V-Dem 0.71-0.74, which scores 0 under call 7). Since 2021, pressure on the press has returned (Freedom House D1 1/4). Weighted: partial.", "sources": [ "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Tunisia (Partly Free, 44/100; D1 1/4, D3 3/4, F1 1/4, G1 3/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2025", "Willis, Michael J. 2012. Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring. London: Hurst / New York: Columbia University Press. https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/politics-and-power-in-the-maghreb-2/" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit is open: sustained net emigration (for example -23,735 in 2004 and -19,612 in 2019), mainly to Europe. Freedom House scores freedom of movement 3/4.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Net migration (SM.POP.NETM). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Tunisia (Partly Free, 44/100; D1 1/4, D3 3/4, F1 1/4, G1 3/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "Morocco", "start": 2004, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 7, "surplus": 3, "carriers": 4, "output": 3, "composite": 4.0, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 0.5, "selfRegulating": 0.5, "noExit": 0, "score": 1.0, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The state university system and public-sector recruitment under the palace (makhzen), with the religious credential under the King as Commander of the Faithful." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 7, "why": "Mohammed VI has reigned since 1999. The 2004 Moudawana reform and the 2011 constitution were passed within the existing monarchy with no regime break. Polity5 durable ran from 40 (2005) to 53 (2018), with polity2 at -6 to -4. A continuous authoritarian monarchy (interpretation call 2).", "sources": [ "Willis, Michael J. 2012. Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring. London: Hurst / New York: Columbia University Press. https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/politics-and-power-in-the-maghreb-2/", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 3, "why": "Maddison GDP per head rose from 5,708 (2005, 11.5% of US) to 8,541 (2019, 15%) and 8,400 (2022, 14%) in 2011 int$.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 4, "why": "Adult literacy was 52.3% (2004) and 64.3% (2014). Tertiary enrollment rose from 11.1% (2004) to 48.2% (2024). Rapid late expansion from a low base.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Indexed articles rose from 916 (2005) to 9,725 (2023), about 0.26 per 1,000 people, roughly a fifth of the US rate.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Scientific and technical journal articles (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), from National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Public universities and state recruitment are the main route into office, and the palace controls religious certification. But private universities and French and other foreign degrees are recognised alternative gates.", "sources": [ "Willis, Michael J. 2012. Politics and Power in the Maghreb: Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco from Independence to the Arab Spring. London: Hurst / New York: Columbia University Press. https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/politics-and-power-in-the-maghreb-2/", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Morocco (Partly Free, 37/100; D1 1/4, D3 2/4, F1 1/4, G1 2/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/morocco/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Universities have partial autonomy: V-Dem academic freedom was 0.55-0.64 over 2005-2023, falling to 0.48 in 2025, and Freedom House scores D3 2/4. The check on them is the palace, not an independent legislature, press or judiciary (D1 1/4, F1 1/4; monarchy ‘retains full dominance’).", "sources": [ "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Morocco (Partly Free, 37/100; D1 1/4, D3 2/4, F1 1/4, G1 2/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/morocco/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0, "why": "Exit is open: large, persistent net emigration (for example -66,749 in 2004 and -91,217 in 2019), mainly to Europe. Freedom House scores freedom of movement 2/4.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Net migration (SM.POP.NETM). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: Morocco (Partly Free, 37/100; D1 1/4, D3 2/4, F1 1/4, G1 2/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/morocco/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null }, { "name": "UAE", "start": 1971, "end": 2026, "axes": { "stability": 8, "surplus": 9, "carriers": 5, "output": 3, "composite": 5.7, "outcome": "Flood", "sourceRow": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "conditions": { "case": null, "span": null, "credential": 1, "selfRegulating": 1, "noExit": 0.5, "score": 2.5, "datasetFate": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26", "unit": "The federal state credential system: the Ministry of Higher Education and its Commission for Academic Accreditation (CAA, from 2000), the federal universities, and entry to the Emirati public sector." }, "axesDetail": { "stability": { "value": 8, "why": "The federation has run continuously since 1971 under hereditary rulers, with Polity5 polity2 at -8 throughout and durable at 47 years by 2018. The only breaks were brief Sharjah succession disputes: the 1972 attempt, and the June 1987 palace coup that the federal Supreme Council reversed within a week.", "sources": [ "Davidson, Christopher M. 2005. The United Arab Emirates: A Study in Survival. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. https://www.rienner.com/title/The_United_Arab_Emirates_A_Study_in_Survival", "Marshall, M. G. and T. R. Gurr. Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018 (polity2 and durable variables). Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html", "Christian Science Monitor, 23 Jun 1987, ‘Gulf federation works to end power struggle in Sharjah’. https://www.csmonitor.com/1987/0623/ouae.html" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "surplus": { "value": 9, "why": "Maddison GDP per head was $22,254 in 1990 (60% of the US), $48,888 in 2000 (107%) and $77,204 in 2022 (132%), in 2011 int$, with oil rents at 15 to 33 percent of GDP. At or above the frontier for most of the period: 9, level with the high-income calibration rows. Recalibrated after the blind check (rubric, section E): the first rubric’s markdown for a windfall the state captures is withdrawn, because the framework counts the state’s share as surplus and the calibration set scores Spain’s silver at 9.", "sources": [ "Maddison Project Database 2023 (Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden 2024), GDP per capita in 2011 int.$, via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database", "World Bank WDI, Oil rents (% of GDP) (NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS", "Davidson, Christopher M. 2005. The United Arab Emirates: A Study in Survival. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. https://www.rienner.com/title/The_United_Arab_Emirates_A_Study_in_Survival" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "carriers": { "value": 5, "why": "Adult literacy rose from 53.5% (1975) to 98.8% (2024), and tertiary enrollment was 53.9-63.7% over 2019-24. But nationals were only about 13.7% of residents in 2020 (GLMM estimate), so the workforce and much of the knowledge class is expatriate and on contract. The book notes women are 70% of university graduates.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Literacy rate, adult total (SE.ADT.LITR.ZS), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS", "World Bank WDI, School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENRR), data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR", "Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (GLMM). ‘GCC: Total population and percentage of nationals and non-nationals in GCC countries (national statistics, mid-2020)’ (UAE figures are GLMM estimates). https://gulfmigration.grc.net/gcc-total-population-and-percentage-of-nationals-and-non-nationals-in-gcc-countries-national-statistics-mid-2020-2/", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1636-1638" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "output": { "value": 3, "why": "Indexed articles were 406 (2002) and 7,075 (2023). That is about 0.7 per 1,000 residents by the end, but negligible for 1971-2000, and largely produced by imported researchers.", "sources": [ "World Bank WDI, Scientific and technical journal articles (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), from National Science Foundation Science and Engineering Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IP.JRN.ARTC.SC" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "conditionsDetail": { "credential": { "value": 1, "why": "There is a legally enforced gate. Every higher-education provider, including private, international and free-zone campuses, must hold CAA institutional licensure and programme accreditation to appear on the National Register and receive federal recognition.", "sources": [ "UAE Government portal, ‘Regulatory authorities of higher education’ (Commission for Academic Accreditation licensure and programme accreditation). https://www.caa.ae", "Davidson, Christopher M. 2005. The United Arab Emirates: A Study in Survival. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. https://www.rienner.com/title/The_United_Arab_Emirates_A_Study_in_Survival" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "selfRegulating": { "value": 1, "why": "The ruling state that holds the credential grades itself with no outside check (interpretation call 6). ‘All executive, legislative, and judicial authority ultimately rests with the seven hereditary rulers’; the FNC is advisory; academic freedom scores 1/4 (Freedom House), and V-Dem academic freedom is 0.07-0.21. The book places most of the Gulf in the Saudi pattern that ‘kept their grip exactly where it was’.", "sources": [ "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: United Arab Emirates (Not Free, 18/100; D3 1/4, G1 1/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-arab-emirates/freedom-world/2025", "V-Dem Institute. 2026. Democracy Report / V-Dem dataset v16, Academic Freedom Index (v2xca_academ), via Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/academic-freedom-index", "The Scribe’s Advantage (25c), lines 1636-1638" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" }, "noExit": { "value": 0.5, "why": "Split by status. Expatriate carriers, the large majority, can take their knowledge home, and net migration swings both ways. For nationals, dissent-exit is costly: in the 2013 ‘UAE94’ mass trial, 69 were convicted, among them academics, judges and lawyers. Freedom House scores freedom of movement 1/4.", "sources": [ "Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population Programme (GLMM). ‘GCC: Total population and percentage of nationals and non-nationals in GCC countries (national statistics, mid-2020)’ (UAE figures are GLMM estimates). https://gulfmigration.grc.net/gcc-total-population-and-percentage-of-nationals-and-non-nationals-in-gcc-countries-national-statistics-mid-2020-2/", "World Bank WDI, Net migration (SM.POP.NETM). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM", "Human Rights Watch, 3 Apr 2013, ‘UAE: Unfair Mass Trial of 94 Dissidents’. https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/04/03/uae-unfair-mass-trial-94-dissidents", "Freedom House. 2025. Freedom in the World 2025: United Arab Emirates (Not Free, 18/100; D3 1/4, G1 1/4). https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-arab-emirates/freedom-world/2025" ], "pending": null, "provenance": "research-2026-09-26" } }, "bookFate": null, "bookFateSource": null, "plate": null, "slavery": null } ], "stabilityRowsOutsideRoster": [ "Modern US 1945-2000", "Modern US 2000-2026", "Tasmania" ] }